TITLE:
Preventions and Controls on Congenital Transmissions of Zika: Mathematical Analysis
AUTHORS:
Nita H. Shah, Zalak A. Patel, Bijal M. Yeolekar
KEYWORDS:
Zika, Vertical Transmission, Dynamical System, Control, Stability
JOURNAL NAME:
Applied Mathematics,
Vol.8 No.4,
April
24,
2017
ABSTRACT: Vector-borne diseases threat lives of millions of people in many countries of the world. Zika is one of the vector-borne diseases which initially spread by the bite of an infected Aedes species mosquito (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) and then it transmits vertically from a pregnant woman to her fetus or from an infected human to their sexual partners. The congenital transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) results in new born with microcephaly and other neurological abnormalities. The control of infected mosquitos is the best efficient way to control spread of ZIKV. Spraying insecticide is the safest and easiest way to control mosquitos, but sometimes it is cost worthy for long period of spraying. Controlled prevention from the vector bites can also help to control disease spread. To control congenital transmission and sexual transmission of ZIKV, preventions should be taken to reduce/stop pregnancy rate and safe heterosexual transmission among adults. Also, there is no specific treatment available for Zika disease. Treatment is aimed at relieving symptoms with rest, fluids and medications. Controlled combinations of rest, fluids and medications will help to recover early. As costs are incorporated with spraying, preventions and treatment, our aim is to minimise the total cost associated by controlling spraying, preventions and treatment. To fulfil this purpose a mathematical model is developed with disease dynamics in nine compartments namely Susceptible human child, Susceptible human male, Susceptible human female, Infected human child, Infected human male, Infected human female, Recovered human, Susceptible vector and Infected vector including vertical transmission of Zika disease. Numerical simulations have been carried out to optimise controls, and basic reproduction number and stability are calculated.