TITLE:
A Forecast of Industrial and Commercial Drinking Water Consumption in Hamburg
AUTHORS:
Johann Wackerbauer
KEYWORDS:
Forecast, Water Use, Industrial Water Consumption, Commercial Water Consumption, Specific Water Demand
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Access Library Journal,
Vol.4 No.4,
April
17,
2017
ABSTRACT: This paper reports about a forecast of drinking
water consumption in Hamburg up to the year 2045 which was done in cooperation
of the Institute for Social-Ecological Research with the Ifo Institute. While
the Institute for Social-Ecological Research was responsible for the drinking
water demand of private households, the Ifo Institute undertook a long-term
forecast of the industrial and commercial drinking water consumption.
Comparable water demand forecasts for other cities or regions treat the
industrial water consumption compared to domestic consumption rather
rudimentary. The innovation of this forecast versus previous, conventional
approaches is the choice of the workforce instead of the population as a
reference point for the water requirements of enterprises. It is described in
this paper how the problems of predicting industrial and commercial water
consumption based on limited information were solved. Forecasts of sectoral
employment were completed by determining the specific water needs for each
sector and by assumptions about efficiency improvements in drinking water
consumption. Those assumptions were secured through written and oral inquiries
of major customers of the Hamburg Waterworks and experts from the water sector.