TITLE:
Late Stage Interseismic Strain Interval, Cascadia Subduction Zone Margin, USA and Canada
AUTHORS:
Kenneth M. Cruikshank, Curt D. Peterson
KEYWORDS:
Convergent Margin, Cascadia, Strain, Strain-Energy, GPS
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Earthquake Research,
Vol.6 No.1,
February
16,
2017
ABSTRACT: Modern horizontal strain (2006-2016) measured along 56 new and 108 previously published GPS station baselines are used to establish the length (800 km) and width (300 - 400 km) of the central Cascadia convergent margin seismogenic structure. Across-margin (west-east) annual rates of shortening range from 10﹣9 a﹣1 at the eastern (landward) limit of the central Cascadia seismogenic structure to 10﹣7 a﹣1 along the western onshore portion of the interplate zone. Relatively high shortening strain rates (10﹣8 a﹣1 to 10﹣7 a﹣1) are also measured in western transects from the northern (Explorer plate) and southern (Gorda plate) segments of the convergent margin, demonstrating that the full length of the margin (1300 km length) is currently capable of sustaining and/or initiating a major great earthquake. Vertical GPS velocities are averaged over the last decade at 321 stations to map patterns of uplift (0 - 5 mm yr﹣1) and subsidence (0 - 9 mm yr﹣1) relative to the study area mean. Along-margin belts of relative uplift and subsidence, respectively, are approximately associated with Coast Ranges and the Cascade volcanic arc. However, the vertical velocity data are locally heterogeneous, demonstrating patchy “anomalies” within the larger along-margin belts. A large coastal subsidence anomaly occurs in southwest Washington where the modern short-term trend is reversed from the long-term (~200 yr) tidal marsh record of coastal uplift since the last co-seismic subsidence event (AD1700). The modern vertical displacements represent a late stage of the current inter-seismic interval. If the horizontal strain is considered largely or fully elastic, extrapolating the modern strain rates over the last 100 years show the accumulated strains would be similar in magnitude to the observed co-seismic strains resulting from the Tōhoku, Japan, Mw 9.0 earthquake in 2011. We believe that the central Cascadia seismogenic structure has accumulated sufficient elastic strain energy, during the last 300 years, to yield a Mw 9.0 earthquake from a rupture of at least one-half (400 km) of its length.