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Lashley, S.L., Fisher, L., Simpson, B.J., et al. (2008) Observing Verification Trends and Applying a Methodology to Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts at a National Weather Service Forecast Office. 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics, New Orleans, Preprints.

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• TITLE: Analysis of Characteristics of the Forecast Jump in the NCEP Ensemble Forecast Products

  AUTHORS: Xiakun Zhang, Liping Zhang, Jiao Fu, Longxi Zhang

  KEYWORDS: Forecast Jump, Flip-Flop-Flip, NCEP Ensemble Forecast Products, Analysis

  JOURNAL NAME: Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, Vol.7 No.1, January 25, 2017

  ABSTRACT: The limit of numerical prediction and ensemble prediction can be further understood by the study of the forecast jump. By using the ensemble average forecast and control forecast product output data for the United States National Environmental Prediction Center (NCEP) global ensemble forecast system (GEFS), and the concept of Jumpiness index from Zsoter et al., we analyzed the statistical characteristics of forecast jump. Results show that, on average, in the NCEP ensemble forecast product, the time average prediction jump index increases with the increase of the forecast aging, and the actual forecast experience can reflect this phenomenon. The consistency of ensemble average forecast is better than the corresponding control forecast. Also, in summer, the frequency of “forecast jump” phenomenon is fluctuating by 17.5%.