TITLE:
A Simulation Model for Sexual and Vectorial Transmission of Zika Virus (ZIKV)
AUTHORS:
Oscar Arias Manrique, Dalia M. Muñoz Pizza, Anibal Muñoz Loaiza, Julian A. Olarte García, Carlos A. Abello Muñoz, Steven Raigosa Osorio, Angie Johanna Osorio, Hans Meyer Contreras, John F. Arredondo Montoya
KEYWORDS:
ZIKV, Model, Dynamics, Sexual Transmission, Vectorial Transmission
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation,
Vol.5 No.1,
January
12,
2017
ABSTRACT: Nowadays the Zika virus (ZIKV) has been one of the most studied vector-borne diseases due to the considerable outbreaks that have generated around the world as well as due to the new transmission mechanisms and health complications originated. According to statistics of the INS-Colombia for July 2016, 68% of the population infected by ZIKV (confirmed cases) are pregnant women. Furthermore, the Quindío department belongs to the states with more than 50% of the total infected persons being pregnant women. Taking into account those characteristics, a theoretical model is proposed and analyzed to describe the population dynamics considering the sexual and vectorial transmission of ZIKV, with special emphasis in the consequences of the non-vectorial transmission in the population. The obtained results with simulations through the beta parameter indicate that the probability of sexual transmission between susceptible women and infected men points out the importance of campaigns to inculcate prevention measures for the safe sexual relationships between ZIKV infected population.