TITLE:
Space-Time Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease from 2005 to 2014 among Cattle Populations in Benin: A Retrospective Study
AUTHORS:
Nestor Noudèkè, Evelyne Houndjè, Olivier Zannou, Ignace Dotché, Issaka Youssao, Souaïbou Farougou
KEYWORDS:
Benin, Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Zone at Risk, Space-Time Analysis, Transhumance
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Animal Sciences,
Vol.7 No.1,
January
11,
2017
ABSTRACT: Many cases of foot-and-mouth
disease (FMD) are reported every year in Benin. In order to elucidate the
epidemiology of this disease, a space-time analysis was carried out in all the
77 municipalities of the country aiming to identify high risk areas as well as
risk factors such as season and transhumance on the period of 2005 to 2014.
Data were collected retrospectively from the Directory of Animal Production of
Benin. The method of Kulldorff was used with the software SaTScanTM for the
space-time analysis while a script was designed in the software R to generate
new sizes with three different models of transhumance. From 2005 to 2014, 434
foci were recorded. Many outbreaks occurred
in August, September and October.
This period corresponds to the small rainy season in the South and the
rainy season of the North. The municipality of Parakou was regarded as the
source FMD outbreaks in Benin because it hosts one of the largest livestock markets
in the country and many rivers. It was the municipality at the highest risk.
The other municipalities at risk were Nikki, Pèrèrè and Kalaléas well as Karimama (hosting the national parkW), Kouandé and Toucountouna located nearby Pendjari’s
national park. This study revealed that the space-time configuration is
real and the main factors of persistence and dissemination of FMD virus were
national parks, classified forests and the livestock market of Parakou all located
in the North. The variation of the number of cattle due to their transhumance
from the North to the South did not influence the zones at risk. Therefore,
Northern Benin is probably at high risk of FMD.