TITLE:
Analysis of the Influence of Heat Wave on Death among the Elderly in Nanjing City
AUTHORS:
Xiakun Zhang, Yanyan Zhou, Ying Tian, Shuyu Zhang
KEYWORDS:
Heat Wave, The Elderly, Excess Mortality Rate, Generalized Additive Models
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.4 No.11,
November
21,
2016
ABSTRACT: To obtain
the influence of heat waves on death in the elderly, the influence of the heat
waves in Nanjing in the summers (from June to August) of 2005-2008 on death
among the elderly was analyzed by using statistical methods including
generalized additive models. The results showed that the death toll over these
four summers in Nanjing tended to increase; on an average 10.76% more males
died than females, and the mortality rate of old people aged ≥65 accounted for
73.21% of all deaths. The mortality rate of older people rose with increasing
maximum temperature. Furthermore, the average excess mortality rate caused by
heat wave weather processes was 15.91%, while it was less affected by the
duration of the heat wave. The death toll of the elderly increased with the
increase in humidity, dropping of atmospheric pressure, and decrease of wind
speed for 1°C increase of maximum temperature. Under the same humidity
condition, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed, the death toll during heat
wave days was higher than that occurring on other days, and heat waves
increased the risk of death among the elderly by 26.6% (95% CI: 1.100 - 1.154).
Daily mortality was mainly affected by the daily maximum temperature 1, 4, or 6
days later, particularly 4 days later. Heat wave was one of the principal
factors, which caused the rise in death tolls in summer, and the elderly were
most affected.