TITLE:
Forecast of China Population under Different Fertility Policy
AUTHORS:
Jun’e Liu, Lei Chai, Zina Xu
KEYWORDS:
Queue Elements Prediction, PADIS-INT, Population Prediction
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Social Sciences,
Vol.4 No.7,
July
27,
2016
ABSTRACT: In this paper, we use queue elements prediction and forecasting software PADIS-INT, set three different fertility programs, and predict China’s total population and the trends of population structural change in 2015-2050, based on the fifth and sixth national census data. The results show that since implementation of the two-child family planning policy, the aging trend of the population structure will be significantly improved, and after 2030 our population structure will be gradually younger. In view of the problem of population sex ratio imbalance, we verified it, and the results showed that by 2020 there will be a bachelor phenomenon, but the number did not report as much. Finally, we gave a brief summary and recommendations for our studies.