TITLE:
Migration Flows and Effects in the CIS Countries—Dynamic Modelling
AUTHORS:
Alexandr Tarasyev, Gui-Ying Cao, Elena Rovenskaya
KEYWORDS:
Migration Flow, Dynamic Modelling, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Russia
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.7 No.7,
July
21,
2016
ABSTRACT: Labour migration across countries has been playing a
key role in the process of economic integration in the countries of the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The experience of labour migration in
CIS appears to be characterized by growing complexity with an increasingly
diverse array of countries of origin and destination. The main issues of this
paper are: 1) to understand how wage dynamics defined by the labour demand/supply
ratio feeds back to migration dynamics, which affects the migration flows
between sending and receiving countries over time; 2) to explore how the age
structure affects migration flow which in turn effects labour supply in the
host country; and 3) to project the potential future migration flow and its
impacts on surplus and deficit of labour
resource, in order to provide the relevant for migration policies at the both
national and regional levels. In this paper we analyse these issues within a dynamic
framework; we consider migrant flow into a host region/country at certain
moments of time depending on the relationship between expected earnings, costs,
and age structure. In addition, we also consider how migration flows interact
with natural population growth and age structure in sending and hosting
countries.