TITLE:
Assessment of Climate Change in Nicaragua: Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature by Dynamical Downscaling over a 30-Year Horizon
AUTHORS:
Josep Maria Solé, Raúl Arasa, Miquel Picanyol, Mª Ángeles González, Anna Domingo-Dalmau, Marta Masdeu, Ignasi Porras, Bernat Codina
KEYWORDS:
WRF, Climate Change, Global Warming, Dynamical Downscaling, Precipitation Projections, IDF
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.6 No.3,
July
14,
2016
ABSTRACT: The present
study has generated and analyzed Climate Change projections in Nicaragua for the
period 2010-2040. The obtained results are to be used for evaluating and planning
more resilient transport infrastructures in the next decades. This study has focused
its efforts to pay attention into the effect of Climate Change on precipitation
and temperature from a mean and extreme event perspective. Dynamical Downscaling
approach on a 4 km resolution grid has been chosen as the most appropriate methodology
for the estimation of the projected climate, being able to account for local-scale
factors like complex topography or local land uses properly. We selected MPI-ESM-MR
as the global climate model with the best skill scores in terms of precipitation
and temperature in Nicaragua. MPI-ESM-MR was coupled to a mesoscale model. We chose
WRF mesoescale model as the most appropriate regional model and we optimized their
physical and dynamical options in order to minimize the model uncertainty in Nicaragua.
For this, model output against the available in-situ measurements from the national meteorological station network
and satellite data were compared. Climate change signal was estimated by comparing
the different climate statistics calculated from a model run over an historical
period, 1980-2009, with a model run over a projected period, 2010-2040. The obtained
results from the projected climate show an increase of the mean temperature between
0.6°C and 0.8°C and an increase of the number of days per year with maximum daily temperatures
higher than 35°C. Regarding precipitation, annual projected amounts do not change
remarkably with respect to the historical period. However, significant changes in
the distribution of the precipitation within the wet period (May-October) were observed.
Moreover, an increment between 5% and 10% of the number of days without precipitation
is expected. Finally, Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) projected curves show an
increment of the rainfall intensity and an increment of extreme precipitation event
frequency, especially in the Caribbean basin.