TITLE:
Predicting Framed Decisions: Simulation or Theory?
AUTHORS:
Anton Kühberger, Claudia Luger-Bazinger
KEYWORDS:
Framing, Rationality, Simulation-Theory, Theory-Theory
JOURNAL NAME:
Psychology,
Vol.7 No.6,
June
27,
2016
ABSTRACT: When predicting thoughts and behavior of
other people, we use either the self as the basis for predictions (i.e., we
simulate others), or theoretical knowledge (i.e., we use knowledge about
others). To find out whether the prediction of complex choices is possible we
asked participants to predict the choice of a well-known or unknown target
person in the classic Asian disease framing task, a paradigmatic example of a
paradoxical decision. In addition, we collected participants’ self-reports on
their prediction strategies (theory or simulation). People’s choice in a
framing task was correctly predicted regardless of familiarity. Although
familiarity influenced reported strategy, correct predictions were presumably
based on simulation, since explicit theoretical knowledge either was irrelevant
or non-existent. These findings show that the correct prediction of paradoxical
decisions by high-level simulation cannot be ruled as an alternative to
prediction by theory.