TITLE:
A Prediction of Future Land Use/Land Cover in Amman Area Using GIS-Based Markov Model and Remote Sensing
AUTHORS:
Hamzah Ali Khawaldah
KEYWORDS:
Land Use/Cover Change, Markov Model, GIS, RS, Amman
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geographic Information System,
Vol.8 No.3,
June
21,
2016
ABSTRACT: The paper aims to analyze land use/land cover (LULC) changes in western part
and the populated area of Amman governorate and to identify the process of urbanization
and urban expansion within the study area for the period of 1984-2014. It also aims
to predict future LULC map for the year 2030 using Markov Model to provide city
planners and decision makers with information about the past and current spatial
dynamics of LULC change and strictly urban expansion towards successful management
and better planning in the future. Images from Landsat 5-TM for the years 1984,
1999 and from Landsat 8-OLI for the year 2014 were used to investigate LULC within
the study area during 1984-2014 and the resulted LULC maps in 1999 and 2014 were
used to predict future LULC map based on Markov Model. The results indicated that
the urban/built up area expanded by 147% during the period from 1984 to 2014 and
predicted to expand by 43.9% from 2014 to 2030 based on Markov model predictions.
The areas in the western, northwest and southwest parts of Amman as well as the
areas of Marka and Uhud, the northeast of the study area, were predicted to witness
the major urban expansion in 2030. And these are the areas where city planners and
decision makers should take into consideration in future plans of Amman. The urban
expansion was mainly attributed to the high population growth rate and large number
of immigrants from neighboring countries and other socio-economic changes.