TITLE:
Estimating Incubation Period and Predicting Risk of Developing Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with HCV Infection from the Clinic of a County-Level City in China
AUTHORS:
Shicheng Yu, Fajun Chu, Mei-Hsuan Le, Hong Li, Jiaqiang Liao, Guoshuang Feng, Yuehua Hu, Weiwei Liu
KEYWORDS:
Hepatitis C Virus, Incubation Period, Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Prognosis
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Biosciences and Medicines,
Vol.4 No.6,
May
24,
2016
ABSTRACT: Background: To estimate incubation period in patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and to predict patients’ risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for indicating health policymaking. Methods: An outbreak of HCV infection from a clinic was occurred due to the injection treatment of varicose veins called minimally invasive thrombolysis and meridian activating therapy (MITMT) in a county-level city of China. Conventional method and bootstrapping approach were used to estimate HCV incubation period. Risk assessment model generated from the previous study was applied to predict the risk of developing HCC in the coming 5-, 10-, and 15-year for HCV infected patients from the above outbreak. Results: A total of 120 subjects were underwent MITMT between October 22, 2012 and January 28, 2013; of those, 99 subjects were diagnosed with HCV infection. Mean age of the subjects was 54.42 years old, and females were accounted for 51.5% in contracted subjects. Mean incubation period of hepatitis C (HC) was 45.76 days using first MITMT as infected date and 30.68 days using bootstrapping approach, their standard deviations were 23.01 and 15.05 days, respectively. A total of 1.3, 4.7, and 10.6 persons will be developed into HCC in the coming 5, 10, and 15 years in infected subjects based on a risk prediction model. Conclusion: Some patients with HCV infection from a nosocomial clinic in a county-level city will be suffered from more severe HCC in the coming decade; effective measures and controls were urgently needed to manage these patients with high risk of developing into end-stage liver disease.