TITLE:
A Cohort Model for Ash Mortality Risk Due to Potential Emerald Ash Borer Infestation
AUTHORS:
Samuel G. Jenkins, Peter G. Oduor, Larry Kotchman, Michael Kangas
KEYWORDS:
Exposure Pathway, Relative Risk, EAB Risk Model
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Biophysics,
Vol.6 No.2,
April
29,
2016
ABSTRACT: Emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is a phloem-feeding beetle native to
Asia that is causing widespread mortality of ash trees in eastern North
America. In this study, we quantify ash mortality risk associated with
potential anthropogenic-induced introduction of Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) in North
Dakota. The cohort model is calibrated with data from Ohio using weighting
across factors—proximity to existing ash stands, campgrounds, roads and rails—to
get a more accurate assessment of overall ash mortality risk. These factors are
known to be associated with introduction of EAB to unaffected areas. Two
protocols, a) “detection trees” and b) EAB traps are utilized to investigate
EAB presence. Ash mortality risk maps such as the ones produced here may guide
the placement of traps. Although North Dakota regions of high density ash tree
stands are few, the resulting relative ash mortality risk map displays: a) very
high risk areas around the Turtle Mountains and Theodore Roosevelt National
Park and b) regions of high relative risk along the main riparian corridors. The
applicability of risk maps such as the one developed may aid in assessing areas
that may require significant monitoring.