TITLE:
Co-Integration Models for Koyna and Warna Reservoirs, India
AUTHORS:
D. V. Ramana, J. Pavan Kumar, R. N. Singh, R. K. Chadha
KEYWORDS:
Co-Integration, Seismicity, Forecast, Koyna-Warna, Reservoirs, Water Levels
JOURNAL NAME:
International Journal of Geosciences,
Vol.6 No.10,
October
30,
2015
ABSTRACT: Koyna region, a seismically active
region, has many time series observations such as seismicity, reservoir water
levels, and many bore well water levels. One of these series is used to predict
others since these parameters are interlinked. If these series were stationary,
we used correlation analysis. However, it is seen that maximum of these time
series are nonstationary. In this case, co-integration method is used that is
extracted from econometrics and forecast is possible. We have applied this
methodology to study time series of reservoir water levels of this region and
we find them to be co-integrated. Therefore, forecast of water levels for one
of the reservoir is done from the other as these will never drift apart too
much. The outcomes demonstrate that a joint modelling of both data sets based
on underlying physics resolves to be sparingly useful for understanding
predictability issues in reservoir induced seismicity.