TITLE:
Age-Structured Population Projection of Bangladesh by Using a Partial Differential Model with Quadratic Polynomial Curve Fitting
AUTHORS:
Shirin Sultana, Mahmudul Hasan, Laek Sazzad Andallah
KEYWORDS:
Von-Foerster Equation, Birth Rate, Death Rate, Curve Fitting
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Applied Sciences,
Vol.5 No.9,
September
23,
2015
ABSTRACT: In this paper, the age-specific population of Bangladesh based on a linear first order (hyperbolic) partial differential equation which is known as Von-Foerster Equation is studied. Applying quadratic polynomial curve fitting, the total population and population density of Bangladesh are projected for the years 2001 to 2050 based on the explicit upwind finite difference scheme for the age-structured population model based on given data (source: BBS & ICDDR, B) for initial value in the year 2001. For each age-group, the future birth rates and death rates are estimated by using quadratic polynomial curve fitting of the data for the years 2001 to 2012. Quadratic polynomial curve fitting is also used for the boundary value as the (0 - 4) age-group population based on the population size of the age-group for the years 2001 to 2012.