TITLE:
On the Imminent Regional Seismic Activity Forecasting Using INTERMAGNET and Sun-Moon Tide Code Data
AUTHORS:
Strachimir Cht. Mavrodiev, Lazo Pekevski, Giorgi Kikuashvili, Emil Botev, Petar Getsov, Garo Mardirossian, Georgi Sotirov, Dimitar Teodossiev
KEYWORDS:
Earthquakes, Geomagnetism, Earth Sun-Moon Tide, Regional Seismic Activity, Forecasting
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Earthquake Research,
Vol.4 No.3,
August
27,
2015
ABSTRACT: In this paper we present an approach for forecasting the imminent regional seismic activity by
using geomagnetic data and Earth tide data. The time periods of seismic activity are the time periods
around the Sun-Moon extreme of the diurnal average value of the tide vector module. For
analyzing the geomagnetic data behaviour we use diurnal standard deviation of geomagnetic vector
components F (North, East, Down) for calculating the time variance GeomagSignal. The Sun
storm influence is avoided by using data for daily A-indexes (published by NOAA). The precursor
signal for forecasting the incoming regional seismic activity is a simple function of the present and
previous day GeomagSignal and A-indexes values. The reliability of the geomagnetic “when, regional”
precursor is demonstrated by using statistical analysis of day difference between the times
of “predicted” and occurred earthquakes. The base of the analysis is a natural hypothesis that the
“predicted” earthquake is the one whose surface energy density in the monitoring point is bigger
than the energy densities of all occurred earthquakes in the same period and region. The reliability
of the approach was tested using the INTERMAGNET stations data located in Bulgaria, Panagurishte,
PAG (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 29, 2014), Romania, Surlari, SUA (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 27, 2014), Italy,
L’Aquila, AQU (Jan 1, 2008-May 30, 2013) in the time of EU IRSES BlackSeaHazNet (2011-2014)
project. The steps of program for solving the “when, where and how” earthquake prediction problem
are shortly described.