TITLE:
Future Land-Use Land-Cover Scenarios for the Flint River Watershed in Northern Alabama Using the Prescott Spatial Growth Model
AUTHORS:
Wubishet Tadesse, Stephanie Whitaker, William Crosson, Constance Wilson
KEYWORDS:
Prescott Spatial Growth Model, Land Use Land Cover
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geographic Information System,
Vol.7 No.4,
July
17,
2015
ABSTRACT: A changing mosaic of
natural vegetation and human land uses has evolved within and around the Flint
River Watershed (FRW) in Alabama and Tennessee over the past several decades.
To determine the cause of change and linkage between human activities and
environmental change can prove problematic. Subsequently, there is a need to
produce projections of future environments based on planning instruments and
socio-economic parameters. Scenarios of potential future land use land cover
(LULC) change are required in order to better manage potential impacts on many
environmental issues. This study creates future scenarios for the year 2030
from baseline land use of 2001, relative to three projected land use scenarios
which include differences related to conservation, planning, and development.
The future growth scenarios were created using the ArcGIS tool, Prescott
Spatial Growth Model (PSGM). The model allows users to build different future
growth scenarios based on socio-economic projections such as population,
employment and other controlling factors. The simulation results indicate that
LULC changes associated with future urbanization can increase by ~23% - 43%
within the FRW, which will lead to significant environmental issues if not
managed properly. The overall analysis and model results demonstrate the
ability of future growth scenarios to explore and evaluate options for a future
environment. Spatial modeling and analysis tools, such as PSGM, provide a
powerful approach to evaluate potential impacts of LULC change in the future
and should be used to manage urbanization in areas with more intense
development.