TITLE:
Trends in Extreme Indices and Seasonal Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature in the Northwest Region of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
AUTHORS:
Tirzah Moreira de Melo, Jose Antônio S. Louzada, Olavo Correa Pedrollo
KEYWORDS:
Climate Change, Climate Models, Extreme Precipitation Indices, Agriculture
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Climate Change,
Vol.4 No.3,
May
18,
2015
ABSTRACT: Probably the most important environmental
challenge of this century is to adapt to climate change and develop strategies
to minimize its effects. This study aims to conduct an investigation to detect
changes in temperature and precipitation in the northwest region of Rio Grande
do Sul with the use of different general and regional circulation models (GCMs
and RCMs, respectively). Seven distinct locations in the region were
considered, for which there were ten different climate projections.
Additionally, we investigated the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall
events using different extreme precipitation indices. These projections
indicate an increase of mean annual temperature of almost 3°C till the end of
the century, as well as an increase in annual precipitation. The seasonal
analysis has demonstrated that the largest increases of temperature are
projected for winter and early spring and do not coincide with the summer
months of the main crop cultivation (soybean) in the region. Additionally, it
is expected high amounts of rain during these same months. In general, trends
in extreme precipitation indices were detected for the RCM projections in most
of locations. It can also be concluded that it is possible that the spatial
distribution of the impacts of climate change on agriculture will not be
uniform.