TITLE:
Spatial Effects of Varying Model Coefficients in Urban Growth Modeling in Nairobi, Kenya
AUTHORS:
Kenneth Mubea, Gunter Menz
KEYWORDS:
Urban Growth Model, Cellular Automata, XULU, Model Coefficients, Prediction, Sustainable Development
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geographic Information System,
Vol.6 No.6,
December
8,
2014
ABSTRACT: Urban land-use modeling
has gained increased attention as a research topic over the last decade. This
has been attributed to advances in remote sensing and computing technology that
now can process several models simultaneously at regional and local levels. In
this research we implemented a cellular automata (CA) urban growth model (UGM)
integrated in the XULU modeling frame-work (eXtendable Unified Land Use
Modeling Platform). We used multi-temporal Landsat satellite image sets for
1986, 2000 and 2010 to map urban land-use in Nairobi. We also tested the
spatial effects of varying model coefficients. This approach improved model
performance and aided in understanding the particular urban land-use system
dynamics operating in our Nairobi study area. The UGM was calibrated for
Nairobi and predicted development was derived for the city for the year 2030
when Kenya plans to attain Vision 2030. Observed land-use changes in urban
areas were compared to the results of UGM modeling for the year 2010. The
results indicate that varying the UGM model coefficients simulates urban growth
in different directions and magnitudes. This approach is useful to planners and
policy makers because the model outputs can identify specific areas within the urban
complex which will require infrastructure and amenities in order to realize
sustainable development.