TITLE:
Fair Plan 5: A Critical Appraisal of Five Congressional Bills to Reduce US CO2 Emissions
AUTHORS:
Michael E. Schlesinger, Michael Ring, Daniela Lindner, Emily Cross, Victoria Prince
KEYWORDS:
Climate Change, Global Warming, Greenhouse-Gas Emissions, Mitigation
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.4 No.5,
November
26,
2014
ABSTRACT: The most recent US Congressional climate
bill, H.R.5271 in 2014, proposes to reduce US emissions of carbon dioxide
relative to their 2005 value by 80% in 2050. This bill does not provide a
rationale for this rapid phase down of CO2 emissions. In 2012, we crafted a
Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate such that: 1) The cumulative
trade-adjusted CO2 emissions by the developing countries equal the cumulative
trade-adjusted CO2 emissions by the developed countries; 2) The maximum
global warming above preindustrial temperature does not exceed the 2°C (3.6°F)
chosen by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change “to prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”; and 3) The
phase out of CO2 emissions begins as late as possible in the 21st century and
proceeds at the slowest possible pace, consistent with objectives 1 and 2.
The Fair Plan begins in 2020 and reduces the world’s emissions to zero in 2100.
In the Fair Plan the emissions of the developed countries, including the United
States, reach 80% below their 2005 values in 2094, that is, 44 years later
than proposed by H.R.5271. While it is imperative that humanity begins to
wean itself from fossil fuels no later than 2020, the transition from fossil to
non-fossil energy need not be completed before 2100 if all countries follow
their Fair Plan trajectories.