TITLE:
Re-Assessment of Forest Carbon Balance in Southeast Asia: Policy Implications for REDD+
AUTHORS:
Vathana Khun, Nophea Sasaki
KEYWORDS:
Carbon Emissions, Carbon Finance, Deforestation, Forest Degradation, Tropical Forests
JOURNAL NAME:
Low Carbon Economy,
Vol.5 No.4,
November
11,
2014
ABSTRACT: Southeast Asia is rich in
tropical forests and biodiversity but rapid deforestation and forest
degradation have accelerated climate change and threatened sustainable
development in the region. Carbon emission reductions through reducing
deforestation and forest degradation, forest conservation, sustainable
management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+) have
been a focal topic of the climate change mitigation since the Bali in 2007.
However, only a handful of studies exist so far on this important issue that
are suitable to inform the debate with estimates of carbon stocks and emission
reductions or removals as a result of REDD+. Our study attempts to analyze the
potential emission reductions and removals for a 35-year period under the REDD+
scheme. We start by developing land use change and forest harvesting models
that are used to estimate carbon stock changes in natural forests and forest
plantations in Southeast Asia. Carbon emissions from deforestation and forest
degradation of natural forests were 1865.1, 1611.4, and 1300.4 TgCO2 year-1, respectively. With
a hypothetical carbon project of 35 years beginning from 2015, carbon emission
reductions were estimated at 817.6 TgCO2 year-1, of which about 10%
was from reducing forest degradation. Carbon removals due to increase of forest
plantations were 76.3 TgCO2 year-1but
the removals could be much higher if there is a new definition on the
eligibility of forest plantations. Summing up together, about 893.9 TgCO2 of carbon credits could be achieved
from implementing carbon project in Southeast Asia or about US $6.6 billion
annually between 2015 and 2050 if carbon price in 2012 is used. In addition to
reducing emissions, there are other benefits from carbon project
implementation. This study suggests that REDD+ has great potential for reducing
carbon emissions and enhancing carbon stocks in the forests. Without financial
incentives, carbon project would not happen and therefore climate change will
continue to threaten future development.