TITLE:
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Targeted Public Health Control Strategies for Chlamydia Transmission in Omaha, Nebraska: A Mathematical Modeling Approach
AUTHORS:
K. M. Monirul Islam, Ozgur M. Araz
KEYWORDS:
Chlamydia, Mathematical Modeling, Screening, Public Health, Policy
JOURNAL NAME:
Advances in Infectious Diseases,
Vol.4 No.3,
September
5,
2014
ABSTRACT: Objectives: Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs) have a great public health
impact globally. STIs are one of the most critical health problems in the
United States of America (USA). Here, we present a mathematical model for
testing several interventions that are designed for various communities in
order to control the Chlamydia epidemic. Study
Design: Based on a community sexual behavior survey, we constructed and
parameterized a mathematical disease transmission model to estimate the spread
dynamics of Chlamydia in young adults in the northern part of Omaha, Nebraska. Methods: A differential equations based
continuous time simulation model is run for various scenarios. The model
considers only one age group i.e., 19
- 25 ages, which is considered as the highest risk group for this sexually
transmitted disease. Our model assumes homogeneous mixing within this age group
and use published estimates to model mixing rates between individuals. Results: The presented model quantified
the potential value of screening and treatment programs for Chlamydia in
reducing the burden of disease in this specific community. By increasing the
screening and treatment rates from 35% to 85%, great public health benefit can
be achieved in two years, i.e., total
cases reduction around 9% just in this considered age group. Conclusions: Computational results show
that behavioral change based interventions on prevention have some effect on
reducing the prevalence in the targeted age group; however, more benefit can be
obtained with frequent screening and treatment programs.