TITLE:
Role of Accessibility and Socio-Economic Variables in Modelling Population Change at Varying Scale
AUTHORS:
Ossi Kotavaara, Mari Pukkinen, Harri Antikainen, Jarmo Rusanen
KEYWORDS:
Accessibility, Scale, Socio-Economic Variable, Population Change
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geographic Information System,
Vol.6 No.4,
August
25,
2014
ABSTRACT: During past decades,
effects of accessibility to growth have been considered extensively. In
previous studies, however, matter of scale has been largely ignored. In this
study, relevance of travel accessibility and essential socio-economic variables
for explaining population change analysed with a multi-scalar study setting by
the case of Finland. The analytical framework of the study relies on applied
geographical information systems (GIS). Relationships between population change
and explanatory variables were established with non-linear multiple regression,
generalised additive models (GAMs). The data consist of population and
socio-economic grid cell databases based on authentic records, transport
network models, including complete digital road network database. Models were
established at six resolutions between 2 km × 2 km and 24 km × 24 km. The main
result is that the performance of the models, explaining and predicting
population change, strongly relies on potential accessibility particularly at
accurate resolutions. An important finding is also that it is possible to
establish explain and predict population change tolerably at accurate
resolutions and well at coarse resolutions, as the performance of models
increases with scale.