TITLE:
Temperature Trend on Makkah, Saudi Arabia
AUTHORS:
Abdellatif Esawy A. Abdou
KEYWORDS:
Extreme Temperature, Heat Waves, Temperature Trends, Makkah, Saudi Arabia
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.4 No.3,
July
29,
2014
ABSTRACT: The main objective of
this study is to investigate temperature trend and distribution over 29 years
period (1985 to 2013) in Makkah, Saudi Arabia, the holiest city for all Muslims.
Monthly mean, maximum, and minimum temperature levels and their trends are
investigated using Regression analysis and Theil-Sen nonparametric test. Also,
trends in deviations from the reference period (1985-2013) are analyzed. The
results showed that the number of hot days and nights increased annually by
1.5966 and 1.832, respectively, while the number of cold nights decreased
annually by 0.4054 nights. Both Regression analysis and Theil-Sen test
demonstrated positive trends in mean, minimum and maximum temperature levels.
Trends are determined for various seasons and months of the year. The annual
mean of daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased by 0.0398°C,
0.0552°C, 0.0398°C per year, respectively. The minimum value of monthly mean
temperature (Tmmean = 23.98°C) was found in January, whereas the maximum value
of the mean temperature (Tmmean= 35.95°C) was found in July. Maximum value of
monthly mean of daily maximum temperature (Tmmax = 43.88°C) was found in June
and minimum (30.54°C) in January. The monthly mean of the daily minimum
temperature (Tmmin) varied between a minimum of 18.82°C in January and a
maximum of 29.59°C in August. From the above analysis it can be concluded that
Makkah is suffering from a considerable warming temperature trend which is
confirmed by the Theil-Sen non-parametric test and there is potentially an
increasing medical risk from heat waves that will be more intense. This
requires specific attention toward: the energy demands for extra cooling, water
resources, draughts, and medical preparedness by the decision makers in order
to minimize these risks to residents, pilgrims who gather annually to perform
hajj rituals and other visitors.