TITLE:
Climate Change, Variability and Rainfall Probability for Crop Planning in Few Districts of Central India
AUTHORS:
Suchit Kumar Rai, Sunil Kumar, Arvind Kumar Rai, Satyapriya, Dana Ram Palsaniya
KEYWORDS:
Climate Change, Rainfall Trend, Initial and Conditional Rainfall Probability and Crop Planning
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.4 No.3,
July
25,
2014
ABSTRACT: Trend and climate change were
studied in annual rainfall data for the period of 62 years (1949-2010) of Sagar
and 65 years (1945-2010) of Damoh districts of Bundelkhand region of central India.
The analysis of weekly rainfall probability was also carried out at both the
locations for field operations and crop planning in rainfed agricultural system
for improving the farmer’s livelihood. Mean annual rainfall was 1233.8 mm with
32.6% variability for Sagar and 1225.1 mm with 30.3% variability for Damoh
region. Sagar and Damoh region exhibited significant decreasing trend in the total
amount of annual rainfall in the last 15 years (1996 to 2010). Also, both
locations showed significant long-term decreasing trend in annual rainfall.
Climate of both the regions have changed as in the recent 15 years annual
rainfall had decreased by 156.4 and 310.7 mm at Sagar and Damoh from their long
period average (LPA), respectively. The Initial
and conditional rainfall probability analysis at Damoh reinforced
that Initial probabilities {P (W)} of getting 10 mm rainfall per week was 76%
during 25th (18-24 June) SMW. Thus, the seed bed preparation could
be initiated during this week. Initial as well as conditional probability of
wet week followed by wet week {P(W/W} of getting 20 mm rainfall was more than
80% during 27th SMW (2-7 July) in Sagar district. Therefore, this
week is most suitable for sowing operation in this district.