TITLE:
Urgency and Necessity on Adjustment of China’s Current Agricultural Structure Based on the Stability and Developmental Trend Analyses of Pork Yield in China
AUTHORS:
Cangyu Jin, Huilong Lin
KEYWORDS:
Pork Yield, H-P Filter, Grey Prediction GM(1, 1) Model, Grassland Agriculture, Food Security, China
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Agricultural Chemistry and Environment,
Vol.3 No.3B,
July
14,
2014
ABSTRACT: With the development of
economy, meat gradually plays an important role in Chinese people’s dietary
pattern. As the most direct reflection of agricultural system, food system has
always been the main output of agricultural system, and pork has occupied an
important position in Chinese food system. We attempts to find the systematical
disorder of current agricultural system by analyzing the meat output of the
agricultural system. H-P Filter and Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model was adopted
to explore the inner rules between pork production and agricultural system in
China. The results indicated that pork consumption ratio in Chinese urban
residents’ dietary pattern constantly kept about 6%, the growth potential of grain
yield is limited while the growth potential of pork yield is increased in
China. By Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model, we predicted the pork yield would
reach 59.07 Mt in 2020, 110.25 Mt in 2060, 205.78 Mt in 2100, the demand of
feed would reach 177.22 Mt in 2020, 330.75 Mt in 2060, 617.34 Mt in 2100. In
China, agricultural system is traditional “pork-grain” mode, feed has been one
of the biggest section that consumed grain. The present “pork-grain” agricultural
system cannot meet the huge demand of grain from feed, adjusting the
agricultural structure is imperative. Reforming the current agricultural system
into grassland agricultural system which takes the beef and mutton as predominates
would be a good choice for China in the future.