TITLE:
Drought Pattern along the Coastal Forest Zone of Tanzania
AUTHORS:
Iddi H. Hassan, Makarius V. Mdemu, Riziki S. Shemdoe, Frode Stordal
KEYWORDS:
Climate Variability, Drought Patterns, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.4 No.3,
July
11,
2014
ABSTRACT: This
study focused on identifying drought patterns particularly during the growing
seasons along the coastal zone of Tanzania in order to facilitate the
determination of drought impacts on forest Ecosystem. The growing seasons were
March, April and May (MAM) referred as long growing season and October,
November and December (OND) which is known as short growing season. The main data were precipitation from 16 weather
stations covering the coastal zones of Tanzania. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to establish
meteorological drought patterns. The duration of records was between 34 and 59
years depending on the available data on the concerned stations. The SPI time
series of 3 and 12 months showed that the coastal region of Tanzania
experienced frequent drought conditions ranging from mild, moderate, severe and
extreme droughts during both short and long growing seasons. It was found that
the coastal zone of Tanzania experienced higher drought duration, severity and
intensity with frequent extreme events after 2000 than before. Despite that
Kisarawe area revealed low frequency of drought events (88%) than other study areas;
it exhibited greater frequency of extreme droughts (46%) over the whole study areas.
Higher drought duration (40 months) and severity (sum of SPI -36) were observed
for precipitation data from Unguja Islands, while data from Julius Nyerere
International Airport areas displayed higher drought intensity (SPI value of -1.9). Generally, Tanzania coastal zone was
never completely without drought or anomalously wet conditions at any time
scale during the period of record. The coastal zone was nearly entirely in
drought periods especially the last decade after 2000. This suggests that vegetation
in the coastal zone might have experienced the impacts of these droughts within
the period. The magnitude of the impacts will be understood by tracking changes
of biomass and forest cover along the coastal zone within the last decade from
2000 to 2011 in addition to the 1990/92 which experienced drought dominance for
Pemba.