TITLE:
The Future Human Lifespan: A Study on Italian Population
AUTHORS:
Maria Russolillo
KEYWORDS:
Lee Carter Model, Mortality Forecasting, Time Series, Survival Analysis
JOURNAL NAME:
Applied Mathematics,
Vol.5 No.11,
June
20,
2014
ABSTRACT: In the latter part
of the 20th century, continued improvements in living standards, health behaviors,
and medical care reduced mortality and produced amazing advances in life
expectancy. These trends, followed by all industrial nations, decidedly affect
the financial position of an insurance company, interested in the construction
of updated life tables. The approach to this problem is faced in this paper by
using the Lee-Carter methodology. In particular, in the present work, we are
interested in modeling and forecasting mortality and life expectancy on a
period basis through the use of a stochastic forecasting method which uses
time-series models to make long-term forecasts.