TITLE:
Impact of Convective Parameterization Schemes on the Quality of Rainfall Forecast over Tanzania Using WRF-Model
AUTHORS:
Alfred L. Kondowe
KEYWORDS:
Tanzania, WRF-ARW, Convective Parameterization Scheme (CP’s)
JOURNAL NAME:
Natural Science,
Vol.6 No.10,
June
18,
2014
ABSTRACT: To describe the evolution of atmospheric
processes and rainfall forecast in Tanzania, the Advanced Weather Research and
Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used. The principal objectives of this study
were 1) the
understanding of mesoscale WRF model and adapting the model for Tanzania; 2) to conduct
numerical experiments using WRF model with different convective parameterization
schemes (CP’s) and investigate the impact of each scheme on the quality of
rainfall forecast; and 3) the investigation of the capability of WRF
model to successfully simulate rainfall amount during strong downpour. The
impact on the quality of rainfall forecast of six CP’s was investigated. Two
rainy seasons, short season “Vuli” from October to December (OND) and long season “Masika” from March to May (MAM) were targeted. The
results of numerical experiments showed that for rainfall prediction in Dar es
Salaam and (the entire coast of the Indian Ocean), GD scheme performed better
during OND and BMJ scheme during MAM. Results also showed that NC scheme should
not be used, which is in agreement to the fact that in tropics rainfall is from
convective activities. WRF model to some extent performs better in the cases of
extreme rainfall.