TITLE:
Estimation of Default Risk Based on KMV Model—An Empirical Study for Chinese Real Estate Companies
AUTHORS:
Yan Chen, Guanglei Chu
KEYWORDS:
Credit Risk, Default Correlation, KMV Model, Time-Varying Copula, Real Estate Industry
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Financial Risk Management,
Vol.3 No.2,
June
12,
2014
ABSTRACT: In this paper, we
analyze the default risk of Chinese real estate companies with KMV model and
time-varying copula. We collected the data of the listed real estate companies
in Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges from 2007 to 2012 to calculate the default
distance and correlations. Experiments results show that the default risk increases
during the financial crisis. Moreover, results also indicate the default risk aggregation.
The difference of default risk between the large size and small size companies
is also examined in this research. Due to the high asset liability ratio, the large
size companies face higher default risk than the small size companies. Finally,
time-varying copula shows that the correlation between different-sized
companies fluctuates severely during the financial crisis and then goes
smoothly after the crisis.