TITLE:
Prediction of Ground Water Level in Arid Environment Using a Non-Deterministic Model
AUTHORS:
Mohammad Mirzavand, Seyed Javad Sadatinejad, Hoda Ghasemieh, Rasool Imani, Mehdi Soleymani Motlagh
KEYWORDS:
Non-Deterministic Models, Akaike Criterion, Ground Water Level, Kashan Aquifer
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Water Resource and Protection,
Vol.6 No.7,
May
22,
2014
ABSTRACT: Modeling
and forecasting of the groundwater water table are a major component of
effective planning and management of water resources. One way to predict the
groundwater level is analysis using a non-deterministic model. This study
assessed the performance of such models in predicting the groundwater level at
Kashan aquifer. Data from 36 piezometer wells in Kashan aquifer for 1999 to
2010 were used. The desired statistical interval was divided into two parts and
statistics for 1990 to 2004 were used for modeling and statistics from 2005 to
2010 were used for valediction of the model. The Akaike criterion and
correlation coefficients were used to determine the accuracy of the prediction
models. The results indicated that the AR(2) model more accurately predicted
ground water level in the plains; using this model, the groundwater water table
was predicted for up to 60 mo.