TITLE:
Regression Analysis of Electric Power Market Price of JEPX
AUTHORS:
Hajime Miyauchi, Tetsuya Misawa
KEYWORDS:
Market Price; JEPX; Autoregressive Model; Bidding Volume; Change over the Years; ADF Test
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Power and Energy Engineering,
Vol.2 No.4,
April
22,
2014
ABSTRACT: The deregulation of electric power industries is introducing around the world and electric power markets are operated under the deregulation. Also in Japan, JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange) operates a day-ahead market since April 2005. We have already analyzed the electric power market prices in the several markets including JEPX by autoregressive models. We compose simple regression equations, of which a dependent variable is the market price and explanatory variables are the demand and the market price of 24 hours ago. In this paper, we analyze JEPX price data in summer seasons from 2007 to 2013. In this period, the JEPX price is affected by many social phenomena such as Lehman Shock and East Japan earthquake disasters. We compare the determination coefficient and the coefficients of regression and investigate the change of coefficients over the years.