TITLE:
Trend and Periodicity Analysis in Rainfall Pattern of Nira Basin, Central India
AUTHORS:
Asmita Ramkrishna Murumkar, Dhyan Singh Arya
KEYWORDS:
Trend Analysis; MK; MMK; Autocorrelation; Wavelet Analysis; Nira Basin
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Climate Change,
Vol.3 No.1,
March
20,
2014
ABSTRACT: Seasonal and
annual rainfall data of the stations: Akluj, Baramati, Bhor and Malsiras stations
located in Nira Basin, Central India, were analyzed for studying trend and periodicity
using 104 years’ rainfall data. The analysis was carried out by using Mann-Kendall
(MK), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) and Theil and Sen’s slope estimator tests describing
rising trend at all the stations. However, it is statistically significant at Akluj
and Bhor stations at 10% significance level. Bhor station showed the maximum increase
in percentage change i.e. 0.28% in annual
rainfall. Monsoon and post-monsoon seasonal rainfall shows a rising trend while
the summer and winter seasonal rainfall shows a falling trend. Wavelet analysis
showed prominent annual rainfall periods ranging from 2 to 8 years at all the stations
after 1960s resulting in describing more changes in the rainfall patterns after
1960s.