TITLE:
Understanding the Spatial Distribution of Forest Fires in a Growing Urban Region: Socioeconomic Indicators Tell You More
AUTHORS:
Luca Salvati, Agostino Ferrara, Margherita Carlucci
KEYWORDS:
Socio-Demographic Changes; Declared Income; Indicators; Multivariate Analysis; Fire Risk; Mediterranean Region
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.5 No.3,
March
20,
2014
ABSTRACT: The present study analyzes the spatial distribution of 881 forest fires
recorded during four recent years (2009-2012) in 59 municipalities of a
Mediterranean region (Attica, Greece) characterized by high fire risk and
relevant human pressure due to uneven urban expansion. The hypothesis that a
defined fire profile (in terms of density, severity and land-use selectivity)
on a local scale was associated to a specific set of socioeconomic and
territorial variables, was tested explicitly using six fires’ indicators and eight contextual indicators
under a multivariate analysis framework. Analysis identified two main
dimensions for both forest fires (dimension and selectivity) and the
socioeconomic context (demographic variables associated to the urban-rural
gradient and average income). Fire density and forest/pastures burnt areas did not correlated to any
socioeconomic variable. At the same time, average declared income and elevation
of each municipality did not correlated to any fires’ variable. To the contrary, the average fire
size, the percentage of burnt area per municipality and the proportion of
cropland affected by fires correlated positively with the distance from the
inner city and the total surface area of each municipality and negatively with
the proportion of compact settlements, population density and growth. These
results confirm the importance of the urban-rural divide determining the
spatial distribution of forest fires in Attica while pointing out the modest
influence of variables such as the socioeconomic status of resident population.