TITLE:
Katla volcano in Iceland, potential hazards and risk assessment
AUTHORS:
Jónas Elíasson
KEYWORDS:
Hazard; Probability; Volcanic Eruption; Risk Assessment
JOURNAL NAME:
Natural Science,
Vol.6 No.3,
February
26,
2014
ABSTRACT: Katla in Iceland is
one of the famous volcanoes of the world for the ferocity of the eruptions and
associated j?kulhlaups. The major potential hazards are the j?kulhlaup floods
that can hit three different floodplains, an associated tsunami that can harass
the south coast of Iceland and a volcanic ash cloud that endangers civil
aviation on an unknown scale. The eruption probabilities in Katla and the two
others known eruption sectors of the Myrdalsj?kull glacier are reassessed and a
2013 risk curve for the next eruption in Katla is found. The probability of
tsunami heights is estimated and the risk from other tsunami sources in the
Atlantic Ocean is included. For the danger to aviation, two classes of eruption
are defined: an EYF (EYjaFjallaj?kull) eruption
class that does not produce
volcanic plumes that are dangerous for air traffic in Europe, and another stronger class, the KAT (KATla) class,
producing plumes that most likely are dangerous for air traffic in Europe. Overall probabilities for an EYF
class eruption in next year and a KAT class eruption in the next 5 years are
estimated.