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W. N. Ward, “Diagnosis and Short-Lead Time Prediction of Summer Rainfall in Tropical North Africa at Interannual and Multidecadal Timescales,” Journal on Climate, Vol. 11, No. 12, 1998, pp. 3167-3191.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<3167:DASLTP>2.0.CO;2

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