Farmers' perception and knowledge on climate change and their coping strategies to the related hazards: case study from Adiha, central Tigray, Ethiopia

doi:10.4236/as.2011.22020

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Vol.2, No.2, 138-145 (2011)

doi:10.4236/as.2011.22020

Agricultural Science s

Farmers’ perception and knowledge of climate change

and their coping strategies to the related hazards: Case

study from Adiha, central Tigray, Ethiopia

Dejene K. Mengistu*

Department of Dryland Crop and Horticultural Sciences, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia.

*Corresponding Au thor: [email protected]; [email protected]

Received 11 February 2011; revised 15 March 2011; accepted 30 March 2011.

ABSTRACT

Climate change adversely affects Ethiopian eco-

nomy due to heavy dependence of the agricul-

tural sector on rainfall. A decrease of rainfall

and rise in temperature has been increasing the

exposure of the country to frequent drought. The

study was conducted in central Tigray, Adiha

tabia, to examine the perception of farmers on

trends of climate changes and existing coping

strategies. Farmers’ knowledge of various ad-

aptation strategies, drought early warning sys-

tem and weather forecasting were assessed us-

ing focus group discussion (FGD), which con-

sisted of 14 4 sy stema ticall y sampled re spondents.

Temperature is rising while precipitation is de-

clining from time to time. Untimely rain and fre-

quent drought are challenging crop production

in the area. Drought is perceived, both by male

and female respondents, as the primary climate

related hazard which is occurring frequently and

affecting their livelihood. Individual’s vulnerabil-

ity to this hazard varies based on their hazard

coping capacity. Lack of modern early warning

systems, inflexible cropping calendar and nar-

row choice of crop varieties should aggravates

the vulnerability. Hence, improveing forecasting

and dissemination of climate information, de-

veloping drought resistant varieties and promo-

ting farm-level adaptation measures like use of

irrigation technologies and adjusting planting

dates should be prioritized to improve commu-

nity resilience to climate change.

Keywords: Adiha; Knowledge and Perception;

Climate Change; Vulnerability; Coping; Adaptation

1. INTRODUCTION

Climate variability has attracted much attention in

recent decades, not only because of the globally unpar-

alleled persistence of anomalously low rainfall, but also

because of the low capacity of society and economical

systems to cope with climate change related risks. As a

result of this low capacity, extreme climate variability,

such as drought, is frequently accompanied by ecologi-

cal decline, decimation of livestock herds, widespread

food scarcity, mass migration and great loss of human

life [1]. Climate change with expected long term

changes in rainfall patterns and shifting temperature

zones are expected to have negative effects on agricul-

ture [2]. Ethiopia’s agriculture, which is the mainstay of

the country’s economy constituting more than half the

nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) and generates

more than 85 percent of the foreign exchange earnings

[3], is mainly rainfed and heavily depend on rainfall.

When the rainfall fells, the GDP falls [4]. This depend-

ence makes the country particularly vulnerable to the

adverse impacts of climate change. Literatures showed

that the scope (geographic coverage), frequency and

magnitude of climatic changes and environmental deg-

radation such as deforestation, and soil erosion have

been increasing from time to time in Ethiopia [5]. The

potential adverse effects of climate change on Ethio-

pia’s agricultural sector are of a major concern because

of this dependence [6].

According to the National Meteorological Agency,

long-term climate change in Ethiopia is associated with

changes in rainfall patterns and variability, and tempe-

rature, which could increase the country’s frequency of

both droughts and floods. These climatic hazards, par-

ticularly drought, are becoming the major forces chal-

lenging the livelihoods of most farmers. Thought the

country’s crop production and productivity seem in-

D. K. Mengistu / Agricultural Sciences 2 (2011) 138-14 5

139

creasing since 1980’s [7], the problem of food insecurity

at national level remains the concern because of severity

of food production constraints in some regions, markets

that do not function and vulnerability of farmers to the

shocks.

The rural population, for whom agriculture is the pri-

mary source of food, direct and/or indirect employment

and income, will be most affected due agriculture’s vul-

nerability to climate changes. As the sector is the largest

consumer of water resources, variability in water supply

has a major influence on health and welfare of agriculture

dependent poor [7]. Vulnerability analysis made across

the different regions of Ethiopia by reference [8] indi-

cated that the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity

of people vary from region to region. The same report

indicated that Tigray is among the most vulnerable re-

gions because of higher frequencies of drough t and fl ood s,

lower access to technologies, fewer institutions dealing

with climate related hazards, and lack of infrastructures.

Vulnerability t o climatic change is hig hly correlated with

poverty and living status of farmers determines their

vulnerabilit y to and adaptation with climatic changes. An

increase in the frequency of climate related hazards could

lead households to lower expected income which in turn

can cause to fall below p overty threshold level [9].

Adaptation to climatic changes requires a combina-

tion of various individual responses at the farm-level

and assumes that farmers have access to alternative

practices and technologies available in their area. But

it mainly involves changes in agricultural management

practices in response to changes in climate conditions

for agrarian community [2]. Adaptation of people to

different hazards vary from household to households

and region to region based on existing support system

to increase the resilience of affected individuals. The

assessment was aimed to generate primary information

from the farming communities of Adiha related to cli-

mate change. This report examined the perception of

Adiha farmers on the trend of climate change and re-

lated anomalities, existing coping strategies in place.

Knowledge of farmers on various adaptation strategies,

drought early warning system and climate forecast

methods was assessed using focus group discussion. It

would also draw implications that would assist policy

makers to decrease the vulnerability of rural farming

communities to adverse impacts of climate change.

2. METHODOLOGY

2.1. The Site

This study focused on Adiha, which is located in cen -

tral Tigray and characterized by fragile resource base

and varying climate conditions. Th e area is characterized

by erratic rainfall. The main rains occur from June-Au-

gust and sometimes it starts in May and stops in Sep-

tember and the wettest month is July/August. Seven

years rainfall data, measured at Adiha weather station,

indicated that the mean annual rainfall is about 600mm

ranging from 436 - 700 mm [3]. Its maximum and mini-

mum temperatures are 27˚C and 18˚C, respectively.

According to Kola-Temben Bureau of Agriculture

and Rural Development (Figure 1), Adiha is the larg-

est tabia of the Woreda with 10,920 hectares land size.

It has four kueshets (villages) with 1783 households

engaged in rain-fed and irrigated agriculture. The total

population of the tabia is 8494 (males 3910 and fe-

males 4584). The rain-fed farmers constitute 613

households and the irrigators are 1170 households.

The landless households are 28 3.

2.2. Methods

Respondents were systematically sampled from Adiha

tabia populations across all of the kueshets. One hun dred

forty four (144) respondents were sampled from popula-

tion of the tabia. Various factors including gender (male/

female headed farm households), age, access to irriga-

tion water and land holding size were considered during

sampling.

2.2.1. Focus Group Discussion (FGD)

Focus Group Discussion (FGD) was employed to

generate information on the perception of the farmers on

climate change, its related hazards, vulnerable groups of

the commun ity and existing coping strategies. Six FGDs,

each consisting 24 participants, 12 male and 12 women,

drawn from different kueshets, were held for climate re-

lated hazard identification and characterization, identifi-

cation and prioritization of coping mechanisms, identifi-

cation and ranking of vulnerable groups and climate and

weather forecasting. Tools such as hazard identification

and characterization, hazard behavior story telling (time-

line), hazard ranking matrix, vulnerability group ranking

and experiential stories telling on indigenous technolo-

gies and knowledge were used to acquire information on

farmers’ perception on climate change trends, existing

hazards and their severity and vulnerable groups of the

community. The different coping strategies used by the

community were also identified and analyzed for their

effectiveness. Effectiveness was rated as very satisfac-

tory, satisfactory and not satisfactory and the rating

number converted to percent to assess satisfaction level.

2.2.2. Data Management and Analysis

Information was recorded using worksheets prepared

for each category of discussion. Data collected on each

parameter was expressed as percent of respondents.

D. K. Mengistu / Agricultural Sciences 2 (2011) 138-14 5

140

Figure 1. Location of Adiha tabia in the map of Tigray regional state.

Farmer’s perceptions on changes in long-term tempera-

ture and precipitation as well as various coping strategies

being used by farmers were analyzed and presented us-

ing simple descriptive statistics (tables and figures).

3. RESULTS AND DIS CUSSION

3.1. Farmers’ Perception to Climate Change

Change of climate was well perceived by commun-

ities of the study area as most of them have been observ-

ing changes in temperature, precipitation and timing of

rainfall and related frequent drought (Figures 2 and 3).

Perceptions on temperature and precipitation change

were categorized into five and six groups, respectively.

Almost all participants understood that the change of

climatic conditions over the past 20 years was obvious.

The result indicates that most farmers, about 75%, per-

ceive that the temperature of Adiha is increaseing in the

last two decades (Figure 2) (temporal trend not indi-

cated). Only 8% of them noticed the contrary, decrease

in temperature. Very few of the respondents (less than

5%) have not noticed any change in temperature.

On the other hand, 90% of the respondents observed

change in rainfall patterns in the last two decades in the

area, and 70% have noticed a decrease in the amount of

rainfall. About 20% of the informants noticed a change

not in the total amount of rainfall but in the timing of the

rains, with rains coming either earlier or later than ex-

pected. The over all perception is that Adiha and sur-

rounding villages are getting drier (Figure 3) and there

are pronounced changes in the timing of rains and fre-

quency of droughts. It was indicated that drought occurs

more frequent since 1992 than it was before.

It has been occurring more frequently to the level that

two consecutive years remaining dry. The result is in

agreement with the findings reported by references [10,

30,31] which indicated that African climate is highly

variable and unpredictable and prone to extreme weather

conditions, including droughts and floods.

3.2. Climate Related Hazards and

Community Vulnerability

3.2.1. Hazards Identification and

Characterization

The various hazards, directly or indirectly related to

climate change, identified by the respondents were

presented in Table 1. Both male and female respon-

dents ranked drought (late onset and early cessation of

rain) as the foremost climate related hazard and char-

acterized it as the most disastrous in the area. Similar

result was reported by reference [3]. Untimely rain and

human diseases took the next rank by female and male

D. K. Mengistu / Agricultural Sciences 2 (2011) 138-14 5

141

Figure 2. Farmers’ perception on patterns of temperature changes in Adiha.

Figure 3. Farmers perception on the trend of rainfall change in Adiha.

participants, respectively. Hail storm and depletion of

soil nutrients (coupled with soaring of fertilizer price)

were ranked third by female and male respondents, re-

spectively. This indicates that male and female farmers

do not perceive hazards to equal degree.

3.2.2. Vulnerable Groups of the Community

Individuals or regions vulnerability depends on their

adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure to changing

climatic patterns as explained by International Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC). Ability of individuals to adjust

to actual or expected climate impacts or to cope with the

consequence of climate change varies to various degrees.

The study revealed that children, elderly, disabled and

poor farmers were rated as highly vulnerable groups of

the society while landless farmers; female headed

households and non irrigators were classified as medium

vulnerable groups. Wealthy farmers who have good ac-

cess to resources are less vulnerable to changing climate.

Similar findings were reported by references [2,3,9,10].

Such understanding of the local dimensions of vulner-

ability is essential to develop appropriate adaptation

strategies that will mitigate adverse consequences of

climate change.

3.3. Farmers’ Knowledge and Perception on

Climate and Weather Prediction and

Forecast

The livelihood of agrarian society affected heavily due

D. K. Mengistu / Agricultural Sciences 2 (2011) 138-14 5

142

Table 1. Hazard identification, scoring and ranking by Adiha communities.

Male group Female group

Hazards identified Scores RankingScores Ranking

Drought 31 1 29 1

Untimely rain 5 5 16 2

Hail storm 3 4 10 3

Crop pests and diseases 0 - 2 6

Depletion of soil fertility and s o a ring of fertilizer price 13 3 7 5

Human disease 26 2 0 -

Strong wind 2 6 - -

Lack of access to services 1 7 9 4

to climate change. Farmers have indigenous traditional

knowledge to predict and forecast the forthcoming con-

ditions. Knowing such traditional knowledge provides

an entry into understanding how a new type of climate

information might be accepted [11]. Different signs and

signals, of both environmental indicators and cultural

beliefs were enumerated by the participants to predict

the coming weather and climate conditions (Table 2) in

the study area. The behavior of some animals like goats,

insects and bee, is mentioned as the most common envi-

ronmental indicators. Special voice of honey bees rec-

ognized as a special signal for forecasting immediate

rainfall. Similar result was reported by [12]. The most

common cultural environmental indicators were the be-

liefs that the color of the sky, amount and color of cloud

gatherings, and wind directions will indicate whether the

coming season will be wet or dry. Reddish sky color,

sparse cloud on the sky and wind blowing from west to

east are used to warn the dryness of the next cropping

season.

These cultural environments have international ac-

ceptances as similar findings were reported by [13,14].

Environmental indicators and cultural beliefs are not

always consistent, as they are part of each person’s

knowledge and experience and they tend to differ even

within a village [12 ].

Some respondents, particularly elderly and religious

fathers (priests), insisted to accept most of the environ-

mental and cultural signs and signals as indicators for

early warning system. The argument is that the knowl-

edge of knowing future weather and climate condition is

only given to God and anybody who makes an attempt to

predict it is a magic. Their influence on others to tell

what they fully know for weather prediction and forecast

was significant. This in turn will have an impact on ad-

justing tradition al practices to adapt to the ev er changing

climate. As such social milieu has power to prevent new

ideas for change [15] there has to be an effort to influ-

ence the attitude and perception of such people for bet-

terment of the society without ignoring the important

positive role of existing social settings.

3.4. Existing Climate Change Coping and

Adaptation Strategies

The farming industry has a long history of showing it-

self capable of responding to changing influences and of

implementing adaptations and innovations as circum-

stances change. Research findings showed that there are a

number of actions that individual farmer can implement,

some of which are specific to particular enterprisees or

land types and others have a more general application

[2,16,17]. Farmers manage risks, including those related

to climate, regularly as part of their everyday lives. To

make sound decisions that minimize climate risks, such

as adjusting time of p lanting to coin cide with the on set of

rains, and exploiting climate opportunities, farmers should

access climate early warning information.

3.4.1. Coping Strategies

Farmers employ various coping strategies against cli-

mate risks. In the FDG, the coping strategies to protect

against climate related hazards were discussed which

include: food for work scheme, credit, petty businesses

(such as firewood and charcoal selling), reduction of

daily meal in amount and frequency to eat and migration.

Similar coping strategies were reported from various

studies conducted in different parts of the country [2, 18].

There are common as well as different coping mecha-

nisms for male and female respondents. Male respon-

dents rated credit and migration as effective coping

strategies while fem a l e respondent s preferred petty work

and daily meal reduction. However, female respondents

argued that credit, food for work and migration are not

the right type of coping strategies even though they are

preference of male respondents. The difference in pref-

erence of the strategies by the two categories of respon-

dents indicates variation in level of satisfaction (Figure 4)

even though both use the strategy to escape the hazard.

D. K. Mengistu / Agricultural Sciences 2 (2011) 138-14 5

143

Table 2. Local techniques for Seasonal forecasting of rainfall occurrence and distribution in Adiha.

Signs and

signals Detailed description of the indicator Time of year when indica-

tor is observed Use of the indicator Reliability (high,

medium or low

Sky color Reddish color of sky from the west

direction indicates shortage of rainfal l

during the main crop growth period during off season Determines the period of rainfall

onset and its distribution during

cropping season Medium

Clouds appearance of cloud on the sky indi-

cate probability of rainfall If appears from February

to March Good rainfall during the main

growing period High

Wind direction Warm wind from west to east direc-

tion near preparation of agri-

cultural lands Less or no rainfall and the sea-

son is dry Medium

Animals

behavior Mating period of goats and special

peach of bee colonies sound varies based on the animalsIt indicates as go od rainy season

is coming and predict to have

good cropping seaso n Medium

Plants Early flowering of some plants In the middle of growth

period It indicates as rainfall is going to

cessation early High

The level of satisfaction varies for different coping

strategies. Male respondents are 100% satisfied with

credit as a coping strategy while female respondents get

full satisfaction from daily meal intake reducetion. Level

of satisfaction gained (50%) from labor and livestock

selling is equal for both male and female respondents.

3.4.2. Adaptation Strategies

Adaptation is improved society’s ability to cope with

changes in climatic conditions across time scales, from

short term (e.g. seasonal to annual) to the long term (e.g.

decades to centuries) [2]. The IPCC [19] defines adap-

tive capacity as the ability of a system to adjust to cli-

mate change (including climate variab ility and extremes),

to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of op-

portunities, or to cope with the consequences. The goal

of an adaptation measure is to increase the capacity of a

system to survive external shocks or change. The as-

sessment of farm-level adaptation strategies is important

to provide information that can be used to formulate

policies that enhance adaptation as a tool for managing a

variety of risks associated with climate change in agri-

culture. The FGD identified use of irrigation, planting

early maturing and drought resistant crop varieties and

soil and water conservation practices as the most impor-

tant strategies used by the commun ities of the study area.

Respondents, almost in all FGD, implied that changing

of planting date and crop diversification are not com-

monly used in the area despite the effectiveness of the

strategies in drought prone areas [2,20].

4. DISCUSSION

The rainfall of Adiha is getting more erratic both in

distribution and amount. Combined with rising tempera-

ture, it is increasing the vulnerability of the community

to climate hazards particularly drought. Change of cli-

mate with expected long-term changes in rainfall pat-

terns and shifting temperature zones are expected to

have significant negativ e effects on agricultu re, food and

water security and economic growth of the country [2,

21,22]. It was indicated that the intense and frequent

drought that occurring has been negatively affecting

agricultural production and food security of the commu-

nity. Similar case was reported by reference [23]. This

increase the vulnerability of individuals to climate re-

lated risks though the degree of vulnerability v aries from

individual to individual.

The difference in the vulnerability of farmers to cli-

mate related hazards is explained by the degree to which

an individual in a community is affected by extreme

weather conditions and associated climatic variations [8].

The degree of sensitivity of the community as a whole or

part of the community depends on household wealth,

access to and use of resources/technology, ages, gender

and literacy rates. Farmers willing and capability to use

different cultural and environmental signs and signals

for weather prediction and forecast also determines their

level of vulnerability to climate related hazards. Weather

predication and forecast enables to devise appropriate

coping and or adaptation mechanisms. The differential

preference to coping strategies by male and female re-

spondents indicates the importance of designing differ-

ent approaches for male and female headed households

in drought management and risk mitigation plan [2,24,

25]. Improving community’s ability to cope with cli-

matic conditions across time and space needs use of

adaptive measures at different levels.

These adaptive measures adopted or developed based

on the type and nature related risks. Changes in man-

agement activities, institutional settings and infrastruc-

ture that are enable effective response to the changes in

climate that may occur. There is a need to apply options

for diversified production systems and diversified live-

lihood options that can help vu lnerable people cope with

climate variability, more extreme events, increasing

variability of precipitation, and the associated socioeco-

nomic implications of these changes [26,27]. Therefore,

D. K. Mengistu / Agricultural Sciences 2 (2011) 138-14 5

144

innovative approaches that influence and improve the

traditional practices such as inflexible sowing time and

developing various adaptation strategies that enable the

farmers survive extreme climatic events are important

area of intervention. So far such skills and approaches

are lacking in most developing countries particularly

Africa [28,29]. Furthermore, climate information which

feed into decision making is not suitable [28] for most

resource poor farmers as they developed for developed

countries.

5. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY

IMPLICATIONS

The farming community of Adiha noticed that their

area is getting warmer and drier due to increased fre-

quency of drought and changes in the timing of rains.

Observed trends of temperature and precipitation support

this perception. Hail storm, flooding, frequent droughts

and changing precipitation patterns are among the major

hazards related to climate change. Elderly, disabled,

poor and landless farmers were classified as the most

vulnerable to climate change. Female headed households

are also more vulnerable than male headed ones. Level

of vulnerability related to risk mitigation options the

farmers use to cope or adapt to the hazard.

Farmers identified credit, food for work, labor and

petty works, selling of livestock and reduction of daily

meal intake as coping mechanisms to hazards particu-

larly drought. They also practice some adaptation strate-

gies even though only few crop types such as teff (Er-

agrostis tef), maize (Zea mays) and millets are grown in

the area. This limits the chance of diversification despite

the fact that diversification is among the basic adaptation

options. Moreover, the cropping calendar is not flexible

even though it ensures escaping of sensitive develop-

ment stage of the crop of very harsh climatic conditions

such as late season drought. The implication is that

farmers need to adjust their management practices to

ensure that they make efficient use of the limited rainfall

for better fo o d p r oduction.

Availability of climate information is a prerequisite

for mitigating the adverse effect of climate variability,

and capitalizing on beneficial effect, especially in Ethio-

pia where the livelihood and even lives of its people de-

pend on natural climate. Hence, improving access to

climate information is an imp ortant first step to improve

the livelihood of people in such variable conditions.

Complementary efforts must be made to ensure that the

farmers understand the information and can modify their

agricultural activities. Some part of the community, par-

ticularly, elderly and religious leaders, perception about

traditional climate prediction and forecasts appears

overly pessimistic. Therefore, efforts must be made to

ensure that they understand the use of climate prediction

and forecast as it will have significant impact on deci-

sion making of the community.

Addressing these issues to improve farmers’ knowl-

edge and perception on climate change, climate predic-

tion and forecast and access them with wider choices

adaptation options can significantly help them tailor

their management practices to warmer and drier condi-

tions. It would have a significant potential to increase

and sustain their productivity even under changing cli-

matic conditions. Examples of such policy measures

include developing drought resistant crop varieties, im-

proving the forecasting and dissemination of climate

information, and promoting farm-level adaptation meas-

ures such as the use of irrigation technologies and ad-

justing planting dates. Such policies should treat the

most vulnerable groups in a special way.

6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author would like to thank Oxfam America for initiating and fi-

nancing the study on Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (VCA) in

Adiha, which has been a valuable learning experience for all of us. I

am grateful to the farmers of Adiha for tolerating endless questions and

shared their indigenous knowledge.

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