Global Warming was not Proved at Showa Base in Antarctica

doi:10.4236/jep.2011.23036

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Journal of Environmental Protection, 2011, 2, 323-325

doi:10.4236/jep.2011.23036 Published Online May 2011 (http://www.scirp.org/journal/jep)

Global Warming was not Proved at Showa Base in

Antarctica

Nobuyuki Miyatake1, Noriko Sakano1, Shoko Murakami1, Takeshi Suzue2, Tomohiro Hirao2

1Department of Hygiene, Faculty of Medicine, Kagawa University, Miki, Kagawa, Japan; 2Department of Public Health, Faculty of

Medicine, Kagawa University, Miki, Kagawa, Japan.

Email: [email protected]

Received January 23rd, 2011; revised March 6th, 2011; accepted April 18th, 2011.

ABSTRACT

The changes in temperatures at Showa base in Antarctica were evaluated. Various parameters of temperatures at

Showa base in Antarctica were obtained from Japan Metrological Agency. Parameters of temperatures were not corre-

lated with years at Showa base (mean temperature in a year: r = 0.056, p = 0.7267). In addition, the number of days

over 4˚C was negatively correlated with years. Global warming was not proved at Showa base in Antarctica in this

study.

Keywords: Temperature, Showa Base, Antarctica, Global Warming

1. Introduction

The world is a very different place today than it was only

a short period ago. Also in Japan, urbanization and in-

dustrialization are accelerated. Global average tempera-

tures are projected to in crease by the end of this century.

An increase in mortality related to heat waves has been

reported from various industrialized countries [1-3]. For

example, we have previously showed that estimated

changes in mean temperature was 1.8˚C for 50 years in

Takamatsu areas, Japan [4]. In addition, by using mon-

thly data, higher temperature was associated with ambu-

lance transports in Takamatsu [5] and Okayama [6] areas,

Japan. However, we could not found positive change in

temperatures in Hachijo Inland, Japan [7], and whether

an increase in temperatures is actually increasing in the

world remains to be investigated. Therefore, the chrono-

logical changes in temperatures at Showa base in Antarc-

tica were explored.

2. Methods

Daily temperatures at Showa base (69˚00'S 39˚35'E) in

Antarctica (1969-2009) were obtained from Japan Mete-

orological Agency [8]. Mean temperature, mean of the

highest temperatures and mean of the lowest tempera-

tures in January, August and a year were used for analy-

sis. In addition, the changes in the number of days over

various temperatures in January and those under various

temperatures in August were also evaluated.

Simple correlation analysis was used to test the sig-

nificance of the linear relationship among continuous

variables: p < 0.05 was considered to be statistically sig-

nificant. Statistical analysis was performed with Stat-

View 5.0 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA).

3. Results

Mean temperature, mean of the highest temperatures and

mean of the lowest temperatures in January, August and

a year at Showa base were not significantly correlated

with years (mean temperature in a year: r = 0.056, p =

0.7267) (Table 1, Figure 1). In addition, we evaluated

the relationship between years and various levels of

temperatures in January and August at Showa base (Ta -

ble 2). The number of days of over 3, 4 and 5˚C in Janu-

ary was negatively correlated with years (Figure 2). Co-

efficient rate between years and over 4˚C was the highest

in January. However, the number of days under –25˚C

was not correlated with years in August (r = −0.205, p =

0.1984).

4. Discussion

Although we previously found positive changes in tem-

peratures in Takamatsu and Okayama areas, Japan,

clinical impact of global warming effect at Showa base in

ntarctica was not noted in this study. A

Global Warming was not Proved at Showa Base in Antarctica

324

Table 1. Relationship betwee n parame te r s of temperature and years at Showa base.

January August Total

r p r p r p

Mean Temperature –0.191 0.2328 0.206 0.1961 0.056 0.7267

Mean of the Highest Temperature –0.303 0.0546 0.217 0.1727 –0.005 0.9743

Mean of the Lowest Temperature –0.097 0.5473 0.226 0.1551 0.088 0.5847

Figure 1. Simple correlation analysis between mean tem-

perature in a year and years at Showa base in Antarctica

(1969~2009).

Figure 2. Simple correlation analysis between the number

of days over 4˚C in January and years at Showa base in

Antarctica (1969~2009).

Table 2 Relationship between years and various levels of

temperature in Janualy and August at Showa base in Ant-

arctica.

January August

r p r p

0˚C≦ –0.030 0.8503 ≦–25˚C –0.205 0.1984

1˚C≦ –0.144 0.3681 ≦–26˚C –0.237 0.1356

2˚C≦ –0.272 0.0858 ≦–27˚C –0.207 0.1936

3˚C≦ –0.348 0.0258 ≦–28˚C –0.165 0.3039

4˚C≦ –0.427 0.0053 ≦–29˚C –0.120 0.4563

5˚C≦ –0.407 0.0083 ≦–30˚C –0.156 0.3299

Average subsurface temperature profiles in four Asian

cities (Tokyo, Osaka, Seoul and Bangkok) were com-

pared and analyzed to evaluate the effects of surface

warming [9]. The magnitude of surface warming was the

largest in Tokyo (2.8˚C), followed by Seoul, Osaka and

Bangkok. Nakai et al investigated heat-related deaths in

Japan from 1968 through 1994 and heat-related deaths

were most prone to occur on days with a peak daily tem-

perature above 38˚C [10]. In addition, they reported that

incidence of heat-related deaths showed and exponential

dependence on the number of hot days [10]. Bai et al.

also showed that the number of unusual deaths in the

summer of 1994 in Osaka, Japan was more compared to

those of previous years [11]. Qui et al. reported that an

unusually hot spell in 1999 was followed by a high mor-

tality rate in Hokkaido, Japan [12]. When the air tem-

perature is over 34˚C, cardiovascular and nervous disor-

ders can occur as a result of problems associated with

body temperature adjustment and metabolism of water

and salts [12]. Unexpectedly high temperatures are par-

ticularly difficult for chronic diseases [13] and the eld-

erly [14,15].

However, mean temperature in a year was not corre-

lated with years in this study. In addition, the number of

days of over 4˚C in January was negatively correlated

with years. Although the mechanism was not proved in

this study, the evidence of global warming was not

proved at Showa base in Antarctica. Further observation

was urgently re quired to prove the glo bal warming.

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