On the PRC’s Future Labor Strategy and East Asian Regional Integration*

doi:10.4236/chnstd.2013.22017

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Chinese Studies

2013. Vol.2, No.2, 104-111

Published Online May 2013 in SciRes (http://www.scirp.org/journal/chnstd) http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/chnstd.2013.22017

104

On the PRC’s Future Labor Strategy and

East Asian Regional Integration*

Du Junjian1, Yao Chaocheng2

1Department of Economics, Tianjin University of Business, Tianjin, China

2Department of International Trade, Shanxi University of FE, Taiyuan, China

Email: [email protected], ya[email protected]

Received February 24th, 2013; revised March 29th, 2013; accepted April 8th, 2013

Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,

provided the original work is properly cited.

In this paper, pressures of population and labor shortage to be faced by the People’s Republic of China

(PRC) will be analyzed based on the situation of East Asia economic integration. A solution with new

opinions about the PRC’s labor and population strategies is proposed accordingly. Meanwhile, consider-

ing the situation of labor shortage and the degrading of population quality in the PRC, a strategic policy

plan is suggested to restructure the PRC’s labor forces in short, medium, and long terms.

Keywords: East Asian Integration; China’s Population; Labor Strategy

Labor Shortage in the PRC

The Pressure Is Caused Mainly by Population Aging

Historical Analysis: The Interconnection of Economic and

Labor Cycles

The present authors believe that changes in labor data can

stably reflect social changes. As an example, a declining trend

is observed in labor forces in the People’s Republic of China

(PRC) when population becomes advanced in age and the aged

population clearly increasing. Therefore, in this paper, popula-

tion, labor forces and their skilled level are used as the main

parameters.

Since 1949, PRC’s population has been expanding through a

long period. Up to 1973, the annual average growth rate was

20%. In certain years the rate was as high as up to 35%, which

was due to the birth promotion policy then and certain political

consideration (Sanders, 2009). The population born in 1949-

1973 (i.e. the high growth period) entered the labor market in

the 1990s when economic cycle in up-turn. The abundance of

labor facilitated PRC’s economic growth and the open policy

further accelerated economic growth in the PRC.

Population Bonus Cycle and Aging Peri od—The P RC’s

Future Social Pressure

It could be simply calculated that after 1949 Chinese popula-

tion entered a high growth period. However, by 2009, the

population naturally born since 1949 entered their old age

eventually. By 1973, population growth in the PRC came to a

halt. As a result, the last lot of the population shall become aged

by 2033. According to Mr. Zeng Yi, the PRC’s population bo-

nus period started by the year of 1990, and the overall depend-

ency ratio would return to 50% by 2030, which would mark the

termination of the bonus period (Zeng Yi, 2005).

From Table 1, it could be estimated that in the PRC in the

future, steady decrease and increase can be observed respec-

tively among the labor population aged 19 - 59 and those aged

60 or older. And an annual expansion can be expected in the 0 -

14 age-band in long term due to the birth-control policy.

Further, an annual growth of social supporting funds for the

aged population could also be found to occur. The population

equilibrium model is established as:





6080 100% 1

pp p







y: 0 - 14 age-band,

l: 15 - 59 age-band of labor population,

o: Aged population each year,

p: Total population.

The Dilemma—Labor Supply Falls behind Economic

Development

Table 1 shows that in the PRC, children of 0 - 14 years of

age will fall by 45.88% and the labor population will fall by

26.12% in 100 years. If the industries remained labor intensive,

the PRC would have to face a dilemma, namely Labor supply

shortage.

In recent years, there already have been obvious labor short-

ages in the PRC. The “Farmer Migrator shortage” has caused

urban labor shortages in the context where the PRC’s urbanize-

tion is expanding. And more labor population will return to

villages, when, on the one hand, high salary in cities is no

longer there for them and on the other hand, the life in rural

areas becomes better and better. The PRC’s economy still re-

quires a lot of cheap labor.

According to calculations based on 2010 census data, rural

population in the PRC has reached 662.8 million. Table 2 in-

dicates that, only 34.97 million left home for employment in

*Short paper.

DU J. J., YAO C. C.

Table 1.

Forecast on the PRC’s population development trend.

Population (100 million) Proportion (%)

Year

Overall Population 60+ 65+ 0 - 14 15 - 5960+ 80+/60+ Child Dependency Ratio (%) Elderly Dependency Ratio (%)

2000 12.67 1.30 0.88 24.31 10.27 9.23 37.16 15.70 52.86

2010 13.62 1.66 1.09 19.89 12.20 10.9129.29 17.96 47.25

2020 14.55 2.33 1.62 20.06 16.60 10.8031.40 25.14 56.53

2030 15.00 3.40 2.28 18.04 22.69 10.8730.44 38.29 68.53

2040 15.06 3.92 3.08 16.50 26.02 14.4728.70 45.26 73.96

2050 14.82 4.35 3.22 16.27 29.32 21.2529.91 53.89 83.80

2060 14.29 4.18 3.40 15.34 29.26 22.7027.68 52.82 80.50

2070 13.70 4.09 3.25 14.90 29.88 27.5226.99 54.12 81.11

2080 13.08 4.18 3.28 14.80 31.99 23.9527.81 60.12 87.93

2090 12.49 4.14 3.36 14.29 31.18 25.3127.20 63.15 90.36

2100 11.81 4.01 3.23 14.12 33.93 28.8727.17 65.32 92.49

Note: Policy Studies on the PRC’s Aging Population and Industrial Development, Xie Jianhua 2003 (Xie Jiahua, 2003).

Table 2.

The PRC’s rural population living in towns and cities.

Unit: People

Household Registration

Within Province

Total

Inside Province City Areas Residents Unregistered

Outside Province Age

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Total 34973139 18636371 16336768 20686276 10448670102376061275587 693115 582472 14286863 81877016099162

0 - 4 1197077 647369 549708 726849 389426 337423 48710 26203 22507 470228 257943212285

5 - 9 1233475 668116 565359 797491 423549 373942 51543 27686 23857 435984 244567191417

10 - 14 1149197 615295 533902 786946 413351 373595 50706 27403 23303 362251 201944160307

15 - 19 2927959 1467542 1460417 1902132 917740 984392 125454 61981 63473 1025827 549802476025

20 - 24 5626492 2500284 3126208 3188512 12089881979524162772 77046 85726 2437980 12912961146684

25 - 29 4244282 1962971 2281311 2351339 919753 143158697800 42853 54947 1892943 1043218849725

30 - 34 3711218 1918847 1792371 1989772 931708 105806492673 45964 46709 1721446 987139734307

35 - 39 4031569 2235384 1796185 2036186 1067983968203 88735 46466 42269 1995383 1167401827982

40 - 44 3640565 2093626 1546939 1850614 1029528821086 80523 43190 37333 1789951 1064098725853

45 - 49 2434827 1475033 959794 1375442 807770 567672 78567 43423 35144 1059385 667263392122

50 - 54 1364054 861999 502055 915005 556763 358242 73376 41258 32118 449049 305236143813

55 - 59 1195857 758931 436926 885817 553304 332513 88797 53825 34972 310040 205627104413

60 - 64 862285 570302 291983 712650 475204 237446 84592 56940 27652 149635 95098 54537

65 - 69 547449 362528 184921 468712 315530 153182 57942 39846 18096 78737 46998 31739

70 - 74 385011 249982 135029 333275 220203 113072 42506 28253 14253 51736 29779 21957

75 - 79 231961 143987 87974 201908 127223 74685 27607 17704 9903 30053 16764 13289

80 - 84 120740 69943 50797 105288 61800 43488 14780 8899 5881 15452 8143 7309

85 - 89 48181 24427 23754 41634 21298 20336 6115 3152 2963 6547 3129 3418

90 - 94 15276 7040 8236 12573 5693 6880 1875 812 1063 2703 1347 1356

95 - 99 5252 2619 2633 3813 1754 2059 480 203 277 1439 865 574

100+ 412 146 266 318 102 216 34 8 26 94 44 50

Note: China State Statistics Dept, China’s Population in 2010.

DU J. J., YAO C. C.

towns and cities. These people will potentially become part of

the urban population. And 78.23% of the total rural population

in working age have become an important source of labor sup-

ply in the PRC’s economic development. In the above analysis,

no potential trend of urbanization can currently be observed

among about 630 million rural population in the PRC.

Table 3 shows the industrial employment data in late 2010

when secondary industry in the PRC could still claim 41.88%

of the country’s employed persons. These persons were distrib-

uted mainly in labor-intensive sectors such as mining, manu-

facturing, construction, but they did not include workers en-

gaged in farming, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery. Ta-

ble 4 shows the value added for above three industries, ac-

counting 44.24% of the total added value in the PRC. So it is

impossible to change the lower value-added industrial structure

within a short period.

Labor shortages may bring recession to those pillar indus-

tries—such as mining, manufacturing, and construction indus-

tries—that produce nearly half of the total added value. Then in

the near future, these industries will have to raise wages to

attract workers and, as a result, step further into depression. So

why don’t we take advantages of the Asian regional economic

integration to import cheap labors from other countries?

There is public argument that the PRC should allow families

to have second child. The statistics data (Bao Chengzhong,

2012) shows that, currently undergraduates accounted for only

4.01% of the Chinese population. The PRC’s illiterate popula-

tion accounted for 33.75% of the total [4]. Once the second

child policy were implemented, The PRC’s population quality

would become more uncontrollable, and economic burden

would be heavier.

Labor Supply from the Asian Economic

Integration

The East Asian Economic Integration

Currently regionalization and globalization is well under way

in the world, as exemplified by the EU, the NAFTA, the

ASEAN and many global and regional organizations. Among

them, the UN (the United Nations) ranks the largest.

East Asian integration has gone through a long process. As

early as in the 1950s, there was the idea of “Pacific Economic

Community”. In 1990, Mahathir Mohammad, former Malay-

sian Prime Minister proposed the establishment of “East Asian

Economic Group” (Xu Ruilong, 2007).

Although issues regarding the liberalization of trade in ser-

vices (LTS henceforth) were put on the agenda in 1995, i.e. the

AFAS (ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services), the pace

of the liberalization cannot keep up with the process. In order to

enhance its competitiveness, AFAS is committed to addressing

the substantive process of LTS rather than just from the coop-

eration agreement. At present, there have been many rounds of

negotiation about LTS within ASEAN. After consultation and

Table 3.

Labor population in different industries in towns and cities by the end of 2010, Unit: 100,000 people.

Unit: 100,000 people

Item Total State-Owned UnitsUrban Collective Units Other Units

National Total 13051.56516.4 597.5 5937.6

Grouped by Industry of the National Economy

Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery 375.7 357.4 4.4 14.0

Mining Industry 562.0 234.1 18.8 309.1

Manufacturing 3637.2 416.5 134.4 3086.2

The Industry of Production and Supply of Electricity, Gas and Water 310.5 203.9 5.2 101.4

Building Industry 1267.5 278.7 161.7 827.1

Transport, Storage, Postal 631.1 403.3 19.8 208.0

Computer Services and Software 185.8 62.5 1.0 122.3

Wholesale and Retail Trade 535.1 137.3 48.0 349.9

Accommodation and Catering Industry 209.2 54.6 9.6 145.1

Financial Sector 470.1 144.3 52.1 273.7

Real Sector 211.6 45.4 9.2 157.1

Rental and Business Services 310.1 131.5 37.6 140.9

Scientific Research and Technical Services and Geological Prospecting 292.3 219.6 4.2 68.6

Water Conservancy, environment and Public Facilities Management Industry 218.9 189.9 10.5 18.5

Resident Service and Other Services 60.2 28.9 7.8 23.5

Education 1581.8 1517.4 17.5 46.8

Health, Social Indemnity and Welfare 632.5 562.6 51.4 18.6

Culture, Sports and Entertainment 131.4 113.1 2.2 16.2

Organization Industry 1428.5 1415.6 2.2 10.7

106

DU J. J., YAO C. C.

Table 4.

Value added generated by different industries Unit: 100 million Yuan.

Industries 2006 2007 2008 2009

Total 216314.4 265810.3 314045.4 340902.8

Primary Indu stry 24040.0 28627.0 33702.0 35226.0

Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery 24040.0 28627.0 33702.0 35226.0

Secondary Industry 103719.5 125831.4 149003.4 157638.8

Industries 91310.9 110534.9 130260.2 135239.9

Mining Industry 12082.9 13460.7 19629.4 16726.0

Manufacturing 71212.9 87465.0 102539.5 110118.5

The Industry of Production and Supply of Electricity, Gas and Water 8015.2 9609.2 8091.3 8395.4

Building Industry 12408.6 15296.5 18743.2 22398.8

Tertiary industry 88554.9 111351.9 131340.0 148038.0

Transport, Storage, Postal 12183.0 14601.0 16362.5 16727.1

Computer Services and Software 5683.5 6705.6 7859.7 8163.8

Wholesale and Retail Trade 16530.7 20937.8 26182.3 28984.5

Accommodation and Catering Industry 4792.6 5548.1 6616.1 7118.2

Financial Sector 8099.1 12337.5 14863.3 17767.5

Real Sector 10370.5 13809.7 14738.7 18654.9

Rental and Business Services 3790.8 4694.9 5608.2 6191.4

Scientific Research and Technical Services and Geological Prospecting 2684.8 3441.3 3993.4 4721.7

Water Conservancy, environment and Public Facilities Management Industry 945.8 1110.7 1265.5 1480.4

Resident Service and Other Services 3541.7 3996.5 4628.0 5271.5

Education 6407.0 7693.2 8887.5 10481.8

Health, Social Indemnity and Welfare 3326.2 4013.8 4628.7 5082.6

Culture, Sports and Entertainment 1362.7 1631.3 1922.4 2231.0

Organization Industry 8836.6 10830.4 13783.7 15161.7

Note: Data from China State Statistics Dept. 2011

cooperation over a long period the framework, agreements was

reached to include business services, professional services,

environmental services, construction, distribution, education,

medical services, maritime trade, liberalization of services,

information services, etc. (Cockerham, 2010).

Since the 1990s, the PRC accepted the concept of regionali-

zation and entered East Asian economic integration process.

Siow Yue Chia, a Japanese scholar, classified the international

labor migration (ILM) into unskilled and semiskilled workers

on short-term contracts (overseas foreign workers) and skilled

professionals and executives (brains). The two types of flows

have different determinants and effects and, hence, occasioned

different policies in labor-importing and labor-exporting coun-

tries (CHIA, 2006). So, why should the PRC not use the ILM to

make up for her labor shortage? Table 5 provides the GDP per

capita of the major countries in North-East Asia, Southeast Asia,

and South Asia. The table shows that the PRC’s annual GDP

per capita was USD 10,378 in 2008, when that of Bangladesh

was USD 3722 (i.e. 35.86% of the PRC’s; that of Cambodia

was USD 4029 (i.e. 38.82% of the PRC’s); that of Myanmar

was USD 5235 (i.e. 35.86% of the PRC’s); and that of Viet

Nam was USD 5676 (i.e. 54.69% of the PRC’s). The GDP per

capita in these countries were much lower than that of the PRC.

So, their supplies of low-cost labors can be of potential value to

the PRC. The table also shows the labor situations in India,

Pakistan, and the Philippines. But Table 6 below shows that the

Indian national poverty rate in 2005 was 27.5%, and the total

population in the region was second only to the PRC. So, if

their labor supply could remain stable, it would be a good

source for the PRC. Meanwhile, Bangladesh's population den-

sity is extremely high. And with high population, its poverty

rate in 2005 was 40%, which means the country is also a good

labor-exporting country.

It can be concluded that in order to maintain economic stability

and sustain further improvement in the quality of Chinese

population, the PRC’s labor strategy can take international

labor input into consideration.

East Asian Unification Process and the Challenge to

the PRC

It is necessary to compare the East Asian integration with its

European counterpart. The EU was originally designed to pro-

mote both economic and political integrations. The former

serves as a driving force for the latter. European countries laid

side state sovereignty in the process of integration, and a

DU J. J., YAO C. C.

Table 5.

GDP per capita in USD (purchasing power parity averaged, based on USD exchange rate 1990.

Unit: USD

Country or Area 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

World 13912 15238 15726 16281 16891 17307

High Income 45259 47801 48374 49004 49503 49952

Middle Income 7161 8679 9206 9811 10516 11020

Upper Middle Income 8052 10075 10747 11537 12483 13158

Lower Middle Income 5850 6656 6997 7371 7764 8071

Low and Middle Income 6658 8026 8504 9049 9687 10137

Low Income 2170 2432 2547 2667 2794 2880

China 4660 7048 7710 8536 9574 10378

Hong Kong, China 45644 51079 53714 56305 58517 58605

Bangladesh 2827 3192 3308 3446 3587 3722

Cambodia 3101 3011 3341 3613 3881 4029

India 5061 5879 6276 6714 7124 7445

Indonesia 7926 9056 9547 9944 10312 10671

Japan 40771 43461 44113 44829 45687 45587

Korea, Rep. 31826 35798 36813 38210 39628 40261

Malaysia 20118 22360 23398 24197 25091 25590

Myanmar 3006 4083 4450 4828 5202 5235

Pakistan 7524 7834 8378 8149 8589 8950

Philippines 7034 7246 7389 7687 8066 8260

Singapore 42940 46082 48821 47771 48274 45786

Sri Lanka 11120 10874 11362 12945 13947 14916

Thailand 12638 13961 14374 14926 15393 15548

Viet Nam 3803 4553 4832 5133 5456 5676

Note: World Bank WDI Database. Authors’ compilation.

Table 6.

Poverty rates (%).

Country or Area Year National Rural Urban

China 2005 2.5

Bangladesh 2005 40 43.8 28.4

Cambodia 2007 30.1 34.5 11.8

India 2005 27.5 28.3 25.7

Indonesia 2010 13.3 16.6 9.9

Mongolia 2008 35.2 46.6 26.9

Myanmar 2005 32 22

Nepal 2004 30.9 34.6 9.6

Pakistan 2006 22.3 27 13.1

Philippines 2009 26.5

Viet Nam 2008 14.5 18.7 3.3

ote: World Bank WDI Database. Compiled by the authors.

108

DU J. J., YAO C. C.

boosted the regionalization step by step (Mostura & Beuth,

2003). However the ASEAN was aimed more at “economic

cooperation” (in an idea of “Open Regionalism”) than at inte-

gration in its strict sense. Apart from the ASEAN, the APEC

focus more on market facilitated economic cooperation and the

promotion of economic development and economic liberaliza-

tion, while trying to avoid political and security issues (Sudsa-

wasd, 2011). The South-East Asia has a diversified culture

including profound religious, ethnic, and linguistic differences.

The regional integration in East Asia would be slower than that

in Europe.

As Michael North and Barnard Turuer pointed out, “Re-

gional integration may also be enhanced by growing political,

economic, and cultural interdependence and exchange, since

the exchange of people, capital, know-how, and innovations are

no longer hindered by political borders. The ILM issue belongs

to the exchange of people (North, 2010).

From Table 7 we can see that, since the ASEAN established

in 1967, 54 public service agreements were signed, mainly for

industrial projects, energy, transport, education, training, envi-

ronment, and so on; but there were no labor supply and service

agreements. The PRC could, based on the 10 + 3 cooperation

scheme, ease her labor shortage by importing labors and nego-

tiating about labor service cooperation agreements, including

southern Asian nations (Dent, 2009). With the accession of new

members, the cooperation may cover more tasks, including

those in labor services. To supply excessive labors to the PRC

may largely be in accordance with the original intent of coop-

eration. The cooperation, as it deepens, may ease the regional

tension to certain extent.

Theoretically the idea should be feasible. Of course capital

flows (to make international capital investments in lower labor

cost regions) can be faster than labor flows in the regional inte-

gration process. In accordance with general equilibrium eco-

nomic theory, this argument was valid. However, in reality,

capital redistribution also involves the cost of time.

O days □ C Capital Transition Period ≤ P Population Transition

Period

Table 7.

Types of integration in common services of ASEAN’s principal agreements, 1967-2007.

Types of service Number of agreements with types of integration

Industrial Projects 8

Energy 7

Transportation 7

Scientific 6

Education and training 4

Environment 3

Tourism 3

Agriculture 3

Telecommunications 3

Public administration 2

Cultural activities 2

Emergency 2

Forestry 2

Water 1

Engineering 1

Architecture 1

Nursing 1

Surveying 1

Legal 1

Investments 1

Finance 1

Customs 1

Cosmetics 1

Health 1

Investments 1

Currency Exchange 1

Total number of agreements 54

Note: Agreement may include more than one type of integration.

DU J. J., YAO C. C.

Obviously, the formula is established.

It should be noted that findings in this are derived from a

short-range analysis of the PRC’s population strategy rather

than an examination of a medium or long term development. So

such a fundamental premise of this discussion should be mean-

ingful.

But it must be pointed out that the PRC needs to open her

labor market to the world, and should combine this policy with

outsourcing business, industrial restructuring and upgrading.

Taking advantage of East Asia regional integration can rebal-

ance the human resource supply and demand in the PRC and, in

so doing, avoid the international capital investment risks. In a

short term, this strategy will be able to fill the gap in labor sup-

ply that has emerged in the PRC, a gap that may cause social

instability. According to Table 3, there are 57.777 million peo-

ple engaged in such four main sectors as mining, manufacturing,

construction, electricity gas and water supply. As much as

37.04% of the manufacturing had been restructured by the time

of the survey. The other three sectors were still in need of large

number of unskilled and semi-skilled labors in long-term.

At the same time, the PRC’s secondary industry—mainly the

manufacturing industry, an industry that takes up 62.96% of the

total workforce—still need to be restructured. This is a huge

and difficult task that cannot be fulfilled within one day.

Therefore, capital transfers and international labor migration in

bilateral initiatives can be of help to circumvent capital idle

period before transferring, ensure effective capital utilization,

and cover up the labor shortage. At the same time, the Indus-

tries can capitalize the employment gap profitably. By that we

mean to open the PRC’s labor market, to improve the popula-

tion quality in the PRC, to import sufficient qualified labor to

the country, to win the time and opportunity over the next dec-

ade, and thereby to bring a new economic growth cycle in China.

Meanwhile, the strategy would provide the PRC a longer pe-

riod of social stability before future explosion of the aged

population occurs. The strategy would also help combat the

harm caused by unfair employment. The number of skilled and

educated workforce decides the optimization of allocation scale

of capital. At present, the PRC’s skilled and educated work-

force remains limited, and there needs to be a huge amount of

finance to support the future aging population. Perhaps in future

the PRC may still need manufacturing, for instance the em-

ployment number continues to increase in construction industry

in recent years when the PRC reaches 50% of urbanization. The

PRC may really need short-term international help with regard

to labor supply. Walking into the Asian economic unification

would be one significant step for the PRC.

Conclusion

By 2030, the PRC will truly meet 50% of the total population

dependency ratio. Now they still have a bonus period of 18

years. One cycle of the skilled population takes at least 30 years

to grow up after adequate training. The PRC’s population is

currently following a trend of inversed elimination and time is

needed to counter-reverse the trend. The improvement in popu-

lation qual- ity would need a longer period. At present, the

lower income industries excluding farming, forestry, animal

husbandry and fishery contributed 44.24% of total added value

in the PRC. Therefore, it would be irrational to make massive

industrial restructuring.

At present, the core target of the family planning policy to

stabilize the low fertility level should not be changed. The

PRC’s population must be controlled strictly and effectively.

Cooperations among Asian nations are all necessary regard-

less of the lengths of their terms. The first step should go for

short-term to take advantage of the East Asian integration

framework and to negotiate labor service cooperation. The barri-

ers should be removed and the policy cost and economic cost

should be reduced through negotiations. Mutual trust should be

built up, so that foreign labor costs can gradually match the do-

mestic costs to make up for the current labor shortage in the PRC.

Following formulas show the social wealth equilibrium

model under the ideal conditions:



















short shortshort

long longlong

shortGDP wageshrotstagestage

longGDP wagelongstagestage

,1,18

,min, 18,

HLLPC

 

 



 



 









H—Social wealth generated by skilled population

—Annual accumulated social wealth

—Social wealth generated and wages paid from foreign

cheap labors

C—Training costs for skilled population

P—Costs supporting the Aging population



, condition exists when rupture of Asian integration and

war occur, the factor tending to 0. As the integration process

tends to perform better,the factor tending to 1, i.e. [0,1]







, refers to the economic return rate contributed by the

PRC’s skilled population in a short term of 1 - 18 years on the

condition of incompleted employment;



, refers to the economic return rate contributed by the

PRC’s skilled population in a long term of over 18 years in the

condition of completed employment, i.e.





;

short

stage , refers to uncertain factors,according to situation

changes in the PRC.



The first formula tells us that when the PRC’s total popula-

tion raising rate rises above 50% and ranges 1 - 18 years of

short- term population strategy, the PRC’s social total annual

wealth volume is balanced by the high expenditures of the

skilled population and the expenditures for lower margin of the

ageing population, corresponding to the limited industries of

high value added limited by number of high quality population,

and continuing to maintain huge scale of pillar but low added

value industries.

The second formula shows that, after implementing the me-

dium and long-term population strategy for 18 years, the PRC’s

annual accumulated wealth will be balanced by skilled popula-

tion and high expenditure, and the expenditure to support the

gradually increased older population.

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